The Great Ethiopian Rennissance Dam (GERD): at the mercy of WB and USA

By Molla Mitiku

The construction of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) which was estimated to cost a total of 4.7 billion USD to be financed and constructed with local capabilities.  The President of Tigray Regional State Dr. Debretsion Gebremichel was responsible in leading the entire situation as board chairman of the GERD.

He told foreign and local journalists outside Tigray on the 20th of February 2020 at his office the GERD was undertaking well at that time. He emphasized that the reason why the Ethiopian government didn't allow foreign intimidation was to prevent interference in the course of the construction.

He expressed his disappointment on the recent accusation as if   the Dam was used by the government for political consumption. 

According to Dr. Debretsion, the very notion of building GERD was not political but it was economic. The intention was to build power engineering industry in Ethiopia. There was a plan to generate as huge    power as possible to help in sustaining the economic development of the   country.

In fact, available documents indicate that the country has targeted to increase its power generating capacity to over 17,000 MW by 2020, with an overall potential of 35,000 MW by 2037   in order to sustain Ethiopia’s continued economic growth and enable it to become a regional renewable energy hub in East Africa. But nowadays that plan has just jeopardized.

While the tripartite continued staggering, Egypt had been attempting all means that could help to jeopardize the Dam. It designed different strategies to create havoc in Ethiopia. Firstly,   it has been supporting   political parties and strengthen them to stand against EPRDF and the government of Ethiopia.  Secondly,   it has been instigating religious conflicts in the country.  Thirdly, it has been working in dividing the ruling party apart and support the faction.  And lastly it has been backing any violence in the country.  Egypt had been offering a number of trainings to groups that aimed to disintegrate the country. 

GERD is among the projects launched by the government to develop the country’s economy.   The denial of its significance role in facilitating the economic integration along the Nile Basin apart from its contribution to minimize water evaporation, minimize flood and maintain constant amount of water flows to downstream countries has resulted in disharmony among Ethiopia and Egypt.

Realizing the benefits the construction of the dam could have, the Sudan was previously on the side of Ethiopia. But nowadays things have changed. It has the same stand with Egypt.

 Dr. Debretsion Gebremichal described this as failure of the leadership. He said that the discussions were undertaking and solutions were presented to every problem in the previous years.

Now the interference of America, IMF and WB is our own failures that their interest could be extended up to halting the construction.   However.  The construction reached at a point where it cannot be collapsed. In having relations with WB and IMF, everyone has to know that there is no free lunch. They offer us money and coerced as to do something they want.

The President of the Regional State of Tigray Dr. Debretsion also agreed with this idea. He said, “The skilled manpower that we have amassed in due process of the construction was also now dispersed. Where can we bring our own skilled manpower if we failed to maintain what we had so far? The supports coming from USA, WB and IMF have their own prerequisites. They give us money and persuade us to accomplish something they desired.  That is why the number of turbines have reduced. However, it is good that the government have recently made vivid that it won't accept what these organizations and Egypt are posing currently".

የኢንጅነር ስመኘው በቀለ የመታሰቢያ ሐውልት ተመረቀ

የታላቁ ኢትዮጵያ ህዳሴ ግድብ ፕሮጀክት ስራ አስኪያጅ የነበሩት የኢንጅነር ስመኘው በቀለ የመታሰቢያ ሐውልት በዛሬው ዕለት ተመረቀ።

በምርቃት ሥነ ስርዓቱ ላይ የውሃ፣ መስኖና ኢነርጅ ሚኒስትር ዶክተር ኢንጅነር ስለሺ በቀለ፣ የኢኖቬሽንና ቴክኖሎጅ ሚኒስትር ዶክተር ኢንጅነር አብርሃም በላይ እና የታላቁ ኢትዮጵያ ህዳሴ ግድብ ህዝባዊ ተሳትፎ አስተባባሪ ብሄራዊ ምክር ቤት ጽህፈት ቤት ዋና ዳይሬክተር ወይዘሮ ሮማን ገብረስላሴ ተገኝተዋል።

በመታሰቢያ ሐውልቱ ምርቃት ሥነ ስርዓት በኦርቶዶክስ እምነት ስርዓት መሰረት የፍትሃትና የፀሎት ሥነ ስርዓት ተካሂዷል።

በተጨማሪም በሐውልቱ ምርቃት መርሃ ግብር ላይ የተገኙ የተለያዩ ድርጅቶች፣ ቤተሰቦችና ወዳጅ ዘመዶች የአበባ ጉንጉን ማስቀመጣቸውን ከኢትዮጵያ ኤሌክትሪክ ኃይል ያገኘነው መረጃ ያመላክታል።

የቅዱስ ሲኖዶስ አባልና የምስራቅ ጎጃም ሀገረ ስብከት ሊቀ ጳጳስ ብፁዕ አቡነ ዮሴፍ በበኩላቸው፥ ለሀገር አስተዋጽኦ ያደረጉ ሰዎች ቢያልፉም ስራቸው ግን ታሪክ ሆኖ ሁልጊዜ ሲታወስ እንደሚኖር ገልፀዋል።

የታላቁ ኢትዮጵያ ህዳሴ ግድብ ሲታወስ ሁልጊዜም ኢንጅነር ስመኘው ለምልሞ ይኖራል ያሉት ብፁዕ አቡነ ዮሴፍ፥ እንደዚህ አይነት ሰዎች ለሚመጣው ትውልድ ህያው ሆነው እንደሚኖሩም አውስተዋል።

የሐውልት ምርቃቱ ከኢትዮጵያ የሰማዕታት መታሰቢያ 83ኛ ዓመት ጋር በታላቅ ድምቀት በመንበረ ፀባኦት ቅድስት ሥላሴ ካቴድራል በታላቅ ሃይማኖታዊ ስነ ስርዓት ተከናውኗል።

ኢንጅነር ስመኘው በቀለ ሐምሌ 19 ቀን 2010 ዓ.ም ጠዋት በአዲስ አበባ መስቀል አደባባይ በተሽከርካሪያቸው ውስጥ ሞተው መገኘታቸው ይታወሳል።

ሐውልቱ በኢትዮጵያ ኤሌክትሪክ ኃይል አማካኝነት የተሰራ ነው።

Open Letter to Dr. Seleshi : GERD: Please no UN, No WB, NO USA

Gebreselema Hailemichael.  

I am writing this letter to you to appeal for your resignation instead of signing any agreement with Egypt that denies Ethiopians from using the Blue Nile. The World Bank, the USA government has any right or mandate make any deal for Ethiopia and Ethiopians.  And Abiy is not a PM right now. He is not any more the chairman of OPDO, and EPRDF.  OPDO and EPRDF is dissolved right now.

As most of you know, Abiy came to power through the backdoor sponsored by USA and Arab countries. He was not elected legally.  As DPM Demeke  Mekonen told us openly the selection of Abiy to be a PM was done illegally long before EPRDF  was meeting to vote him.  Three months ahead before Abiy came to power, Ambassador Herman Cohen also told us Abiy will be Ethiopian PM.  Thus to begin with Abiy set himself up to serve as a leader against his country and his own people. This was also confirmed by President Donald Trump and Ambassador Alex for EU which proves Abiy is a bona fide self-loathing against the about 110 million people of Ethiopia.

As you all know also when Abiy was handed power in front of national TV, he has made an oath that he will work according to the constitution and will obey the law and he has made his oath in public by swearing in front of the whole nation.  You all know what Abiy has been doing right and left trashing the constitution and completely he has come a lawless anarchist and he has breached or violated the contract or oath he has made in front of all Ethiopians.  He swore to be PM as EPRDF. But he was lying, deceiving 110 million people for almost two years and he was working against his own party and against the country in the background and eventually he openly told us he was not EPRDF and now he is PP party.  PP is now a brand new party and with a brand new programme.  One cannot make an oath or swearing as X and change to be Y after that. He did not get power to be a PM of a new party and new program. Thus Abiy  is not a PM by his own  violation of his own  public oath.  There is no anymore OPDO, OPDO chairman and EPRDF chairman and there is no PM in Ethiopia.   Abiy is not any more a PM.  As such he has no mandate to make or represent Ethiopia in any agreement because he is illegally occupying the office of the government office.  

On top of that there is conflict of interest with Abiy and Ethiopian interest.  Abiy,  unfortunately  is against  the GERD  which means against Ethiopians, his  personal interest is in conflict with the interest of  110 million people and  has caused a lot of damage to the GERD out of  wickedness. 

Therefore, Ethiopia right now has no legal government that can represent it.  Dr. Sileshi must not do any deal or agreement until a legal government comes to power.  You know when Egypt had   political problems, it asked Ethiopia to wait until they get a government.  The same scenario must apply to Ethiopia. 

World Bank and USA government has no any right to propose, mediate, demand Ethiopia anything. Ethiopia and Ethiopians do not owe anything to USA and WB.  WB and American government must not be allowed to have a say.  We do not need their mediation and proposal. What we need from them is to leave Ethiopia alone.  WB and USA government are racists who do thinks based on skin colour.  WB is still a colonialist financial institution which still has colonial constitution.  They believe in racism and they could not even change their racist articles in their constitution. 

Dr. Sileshi, if Abiy is forcing you, I suggest you seek Asylum when you come out of the country instead of signing anything.   Abiy is a pure curse.

AP (አ  ፖ ) notes:

It is clear USA has intervened to disadvantage Ethiopia. This is unacceptable. 85% of The Blue Nile or Abay River ( in Tigrigna and Amharic), thus Ethiopia has ownership to the river and also responsibility to harass the river in the interest of all countries. Egypt says that it wants to use the majority of the water and deos nopt any dams built, which means a declaration of against Ethiopia.
The Nile River can be used all surrounding countries like many other rivers in the world. for example, The River Rhine  supplies  water to all countries in Europe which are depedent on Rhine River. So should the Nile River be used by all in mutual benefit, which Ethiopia is ready for. War maybe the solution. Egypt's is intervening in the Horn Africa in many ways. Only war can stop this.

Abiy Ahmed is a traitor-in-chief, who allows Issaias to continue his atrocities in Eritrea, And dump his trash in the Ethiopian political soil.

By Haile Tessema

Before Abiy's rise to the highest office in the land by fluke, the Eritrean President was on a downward spiral politically, and on the verge of collapse personally.

Degenerating from hero to zero in the eyes of his citizens; isolated from regional, continental and international politics, Issaias became bitter, paranoid, emotionally depressed, and his physical health deteriorated compelling him to travel abroad more frequently for medical treatment than work visits.

Lo and behold, lucky for the man who overstayed his welcome not only in politics but also on planet earth, the son of Ahmed came to his rescue with a mission to fulfill the American & Gulf States' roadmap to disaster, which included having to raise the Lazarus of the Horn of Africa from the political grave.

Subsequently, under the pretext of peace and bridge-building, Abiy welcomed Issaias like a king of kings and a returning war hero during a state visit to Ethiopia. Continues to portray him as an elderly statesman; a big "brother" to confide in and a partner in crime to conspire with.

As a result, the lunatic who should've been in mental asylum, exile or in the hereafter long ago, has been resuscitated, if for nothing else, to talk his brand of political trash, laughably feel entitled to intervene in domestic matters of a sovereign country once again, and show interest in the one and only political game he knows how to play, often disastrously,: conflict, war and rumors of war.

The shameless grumpy old man has no qualms when he talks about another country's political and socioeconomic problems, while notorious for having his own legion of demons and a pile of skeletons in a big closet.

1.     A man who made his way to the top killing his comrades in arms;

2.     Has ruled his country with an iron fist for 30 years and counting with no constitution or parliament;

3.     Closed a university and colleges, replacing them with a mega military camp called Sawa, and subjects young people to indefinite military service;

4.     Compels the youth, including pre-teens, to flee the country on foot to neighboring countries, mainly Ethiopia, whereby some get shot and killed by the Eritrean army before crossing the border;

5.     Made Eritrea to be a case study for a pariah state and arrested development;

6.     Turned a country with access to sea and ports, high tourism potential; a somewhat skilled labor, industrious people with a bright future upon independence into a hellhole of the worst kind;

7.     Has been in conflict or outright war with all neighboring countries - Djibouti, Ethiopia, Sudan, Yemen;

8.     Locked up comrades who disagreed with him to life in prison without trial, and put them under harsh condition, ultimately subjecting them to die one after another;

9.     Denies a resting place to deceased veteran freedom fighter colleagues turned foes who die in exile;

10.  Infringes on religious freedom by shutting down Protestant churches, and imprisoning followers found to be worshipping in private homes.

The list could go on, but enough said.

So, for Abiy to allow himself become a vasal for prolonging Issaias' reign in power, thereby perpetuate Eritreans' suffering, is a political crime against humanity.

By the same token, for the shoe-in, lame duck P.M. -- who continues to hold onto power unconstitutionally -- to help revive the psychotic egomaniac's delusion of coercing Tigrai to submission is treason unprecedented in modern Ethiopian history.

Open Letter to Dr. Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia- Make Sure Ethiopia’s Water Sovereignty is Protected

By Ermias Hailu

Egypt Reaction to the Construction of Great EthiopianRenaissance Dam (GERD)

 Egypt has been “the behind the curtain” organizer, financier, and leader of the instabilities Ethiopia has been experiencing during the last ten years. Egypt has developed and implemented a “Grand Ethiopian Destabilization Strategy” to destabilize Ethiopia. The strategy was developed after a careful study and analysis of the internal weaknesses of Ethiopia, such asthe fluid nature of EPRDF, growing dissatisfaction of the Ethiopian people on EPRDF governance, historic and current rivalry within different ethnic and religious groups, weaknesses of the current federal structure and economic disparity and poverty. Egypt’s destabilizationstrategy has been implemented by involving various foot soldiers such as President Isaias of Eritrea, Dr. Berhanu Nega of Ginbot 7, Ato Daud Ibsa of OLF and so many underground agents with full involvement of various media outlets such as ESAT.The Egyptian intelligence has recruited many Ethiopian agents sold out for money and their political ambitions and these agents have been working 24/7 hand in hand with Egypt and Eritrea in spying and destabilization of Ethiopia (Please refer to Prophet Daniel book detailed below for details).

The central focus of Egypt’s destabilization strategy has been to weaken EPRDF by eliminating its leadership and dividing the Ethiopian people by demonizing the TPLF and the Tigrayan people which they have been able to implement it effectively. According to  Daniel Abera’s book titled “When the Real World is Revealed” dated September 2014, PM Meles was killed by a “radioactive material exposure” that was planned and executed by the Egyptian’s intelligence.

The destabilization strategy of Egypt has the following goals:

-          Weaken the EPRDF government andinstall Egypt friendly governmentin Ethiopia that will sign a binding water share agreement that protectsso called “historical share “ofEgypt (an agreement between Sudan and Egypt in 1959with the then Egypt installed President of Sudan, Gen. Ibrahim Abboud,allocated 78% of the Nile water by volume to Egypt). If this goal is achieved, Egypt will allow the completion of GERD as it will benefit Egypt as “free of charge” reservoir.

-           Incase Egypt fails to install a friendly government; it will continue to destabilize and weaken Ethiopia including itsdefense force and destroy the GERD prior to its completion.

Where does Egypt stand regarding realization of its goals?

-          Ethiopia is currently not stable and undergoing political transition.

-          Even though Egypt has a very high hope that you will be easily manipulated to sign a water share agreement that benefits Egypt, it could not succeed so far except the verbal commitment you gave to President Sisi in Cairo on July 11, 2018.

-          However, Egypt is currently pressurizingEthiopia through USA and World Bank to agree on the dam filling and operation agreement that could jeopardize its sovereignty over the GERD and the Abay river.  It has been recently reported in the media that Ethiopia is ready to sign the agreement soon.

According to Joint Statement of Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, the United States and the World Bank dated January 31, 2020 the negotiating parties have agreed on the following issues and will prepare all agreements for signature by the end of February 2020:

1.     A schedule for a stage-based filling plan of the GERD; 

2.     A mitigation mechanism for the filling of the GERD during drought, prolonged drought, and prolonged periods of dry years; and

3.     A mitigation mechanism for the annual and long-term operation of the GERD in drought, prolonged drought, and prolonged periods of dry years.

From the limited information available in the media, it looks the understandings reached on issues item 1and 2 above may not pose major risks on Ethiopia. However, on the issue related to item 3 above, it looks the terms “drought, prolonged drought and prolonged period of dry years” are included to prevent Ethiopia from using its water by putting extended, unmeasurable and subjective conditions. Sinceany drought on Egypt or Sudan is caused by shortage of rain in Ethiopia; the risk of drought affects Ethiopia one year ahead of Egypt and Sudan. Considering the fact that Egypt has been mitigating this risk for generationsusing the Aswan dam, it is unreasonable for Egypt to ask for additional security to mitigate this risk using the water stored in GERDwhile Ethiopia is already exposed to the same drought related risk which has higher impact on Ethiopia’s rain fed subsistence farming.  Ethiopia has the sovereign right on its water and should give priority to its people and use the water stored in the GERD as a risk mitigationto avoids famine. In case Ethiopia decides to share part of the GERD stored water during drought periodto Sudan and Egypt, it must be purely at the discretion of Ethiopia and there should be a financial compensation to that effect from Sudan and Egypt. There should be also obligatory conditions specified on Egypt and Sudan to use the water from the Nile in an efficient and effective manner and with out taking the water from its natural course. It is a known fact that Egypt has built secret canals that takes the Nile water to Sini desert and elsewhere in violation of international regulations.

 Any commitment from Ethiopia to guarantee minimum annual volume flow from GERD, as part of the dam operating agreement, will be taken as the minimum amount that Ethiopia has to give-in as a share to both Egypt and Sudan and care must be taken not to commit any amount until agreed by a “water share agreement” that will be negotiated and agreed in the future. Based on the information from media Ethiopia has agreed 37.5 billion Cubic Meter annual flow the minimum annual flow to trigger drought conditions, considering the average total Abay river volume flow per year is 49 billion cubic meters, Ethiopia is guaranteeingminimum 76.5% of the average annual flow to Egypt and Sudan. With out any doubt Egypt and Sudan will use the minimum guaranteed amount as the minimum base line during upcoming water share agreements negotiation.However, with this guarantee Egypt has already secured its share and it will not have any interest to negotiate water share agreement in the future.

Furthermore, any agreement signed with Egypt and Sudanmust be conditional to both countries committing that they will not be directly or indirectly involved on any activity that destabilizes or harms the interests of Ethiopia such as security, economy and political interests. How can you be sure that Egypt will stop sabotaging Ethiopia after the signature of the agreement under negotiation?

This is, therefore, to appeal to you that the following are considered toprotect Ethiopia’s water sovereignty and interest:

-          The drought related risk mitigation requested by Egypt as part of the long-term operation of the dam should not be accepted by Ethiopia for the reasons stated above.

-          The water share agreement that protects Egypt’s so called “historical rights” looks to me that it is already indirectly incorporated in the risk mitigation minimum triggercondition related to the agreed 37.5 billion cubic meters. This will give the lion share of the annual volume flow of the Abay River to Egypt without win-win arrangement and benefit to Ethiopia.

How the Ethiopian refugee policy and the mysterious “peace-deal” with Eritrea are driving fragility in Tigray Regional State?

By Tesfahun Abay (tesfahunabay@gmail.com

As the data obtained from UNHCR indicates, Ethiopia hosts 905,831 registered refugees from 19 countries which is the second largest figure in Africa (after Uganda) as of 2018[1] of which Eritreans accounted for 19.2%. At the end of 2018, about 585,900 Eritreans (507,300 documented and 78,600 pending asylum seekers) were registered worldwide by UNHCR[2]. Adding the 1.2 million Diaspora community, the proportion of Eritreans who live outside the country is estimated at about 30% of their population.

Globally, about 34,000 people are forcibly displaced per day^[3] due to various reasons of which Eritreans shared 3%. Studies indicate that Eritreans have increasingly been trafficked and held hostage by Bedouins in the Sinai Desert, where they are victims of organ harvesting, rape, extortion and torture[4]. Eritreans composed approximately 90% of the victims of Sinai trafficking from 2009-2013[5]. As the Global Slavery Index of 2018 indicates, Eritrea had the second highest prevalence of slavery in the world as of 2018 (following North Korea). Further, the country is ranked the lowest in the 2019 World Freedom Index and 177^th out of 180 countries in the 2019 Index of Economic Freedom[6].In terms of ease of doing business rank, Eritrea stood 189 out of 190 countries in the world as of 2019.

Eritrea has a population of 5.97 million (as of July 2018) with a median age of 19.9 years and its capital Asmara has 0.93 million residents (as of 2019)[7]. With an average of 4.13 births per woman, human fertility rate of the country is one of the highest in the world[8]. 

Ever since its independence from Ethiopia in 1993, Eritrea has remained isolated from the world. The border was highly militarized and hence the in and out movement of citizens have been prohibited. Despite this, Eritreans have been fleeing out of the countryacross all boardersfor various reasons: political persecution (fear of forced military recruitment, arbitrary arrest and detention without trial, religious persecution and other human rights violations) as well as severe and widespread poverty, and poor livelihood prospect[9].

At present, Eritrea is the first per capita refugee producing country and the fourth largest in absolute number of refugees in the world following Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan[10]. During the past several decades, Ethiopia mainly Tigray Region has remained as one of the prime destination and transit of Eritrean refugees. According to a survey made by the World Bank[11], 65 percent of Eritrean refugees arriving in camps in Tigray leave within the first year that many of them (including a large number of unaccompanied children) continue their migration to Europe via Sudan and Libya, often using smugglers. Such flight of large number of Eritreans has severely degraded the country’s young and most productive manpower.

Meanwhile, Eritrea and Ethiopia signed a peace agreement in June 2018 and both countries officially opened several crossing points on the 11^th of September 2018 allowing free movement of people and goods. This intensified the exodus of the Eritreans andaccording to the data obtained from UNHCR as much as 1,500 Eritreans were fleeing out of the country daily and many were rushing for the fear that the border may close again. In just one month, i.e., September 11 to October 12 2018, as much as 60,000 Eritreans left the country and arrived at Tigray of which 14,107 were registered (a three fold surge compared to the pre-opening) at Endabaguna reception and registration center[12].For the Eritreans, the peace deal with Ethiopia has created a safe route to Tigray region of Ethiopia. Looking at the exodus of the youth, the Eritrean government blocked the roads again after a month of free mobility. If the boarder is re-opened again, there will no doubt Eritreans will start fleeing their country in mass.

No doubt, this “peace-time” exodus was directly related to the state of hopelessness of the Eritreans on the Isaya’s regime[13]. And, what is alarming is the fact that most Eritreans do not want to register at the entry points nor do they intend to settle in the refugee camps due to the fear of involuntary repatriation. Therefore, they hide their documents and enter to Tigray towns and search for jobs. The exact number of the refugees living in these towns are lacking and there has not been any tracking system to understand how they are living and how many of them transited and where, etc. are unknown. These together with the poor resilience capacity of the host community have posed a heavy threat to the security and wellbeing of the refugees and the host in the region.

The situation in Tigray region

Tigray’spopulation stands at about 5.6 million of whom 51% are on their working age. The region has 126 small and big towns of these 10 are swelling to over one hundred thousand residents each. The capital city, Mekelle, has about half a million residents.

At present, Tigray is heavily affected by a large number of IDPs (Internally Displaced Persons that are estimated at about 130 thousand) from other regions of the country. Further, 28% of its population is below poverty line and over 20% of its population are severely food insecure which together with the large number of registered and un-registered Eritrean refugees put a heavy burden on the socio-economy of the regional state. Adding an insult to injury,recently, unconfirmed government sources indicate thatthe Eritrean and Ethiopian governments have agreed, among others, to close theEritrean refugee camps located in Tigray region and re-open the crossing points in the borders of the two countries and allow free movement of people that both have the potential of creating refugee crises in the region.

What is even more daunting is the fact that Tigray region has little resilience capacity to solve such major exodus by its own. On the other hand, if refugees do not get enough jobs and income, then it is natural that they will steal from people and disturb the security of the towns. Imagine the large number of these Eritrean refugees are ex-soldiers and at present there happens a noticeable rise of incidence of crimes including theft, murder etc., in the major towns of Tigray and the residents are already feeling less safe in their towns. All these have the potential of jeopardizing the development efforts of the region which the local government and development agents do not seem to have prepared well.

The reaction of the Tigray regional government and residents

The peace deal signed between Ethiopia and Eritrea in July 2018 has ended the two decades of a frozen war between the two countries and was followed by opening-up their border and surface roads on September 11, 2018. This allowed the re-union of the two Tigrigna speaking brothers and sisters residing to the south and north of the Mereb River. The host community understands that Eritreans are of their own sisters and brothers: speak the same languages (Tigrigna, Kunama, Saho, etc.),close geographic proximity and share same border, have the same culture (dressing, hair style, wedding and mourning services)family lineage as well as all the heritages of the Axumite monuments, rock hewn churches, the Geez alphabet, etc.

Because of all these, what ever costs to the host community, Eritrean refugees have been better off with much lower poverty rates[14] and enjoy more rights compared to other countries’ refugee groups hosted in other regions of the country with respect to standard of living, livelihood and employment as well as ties to host communities[15]. Moreover, UNHCR and WB surveys indicate that Eritrean refugees showed a higher degree of integration, from economic self-reliance and higher participation in the labor force to better housing condition and lower poverty incidence. Overall, Tigray has remained to bea genuine partner and a safe haven for Eritrean refugees and migrants and respect their dignity and wellbeing. By doing this, the regional government and the host community have proven to be cohesive and inclusive towards Eritrean asylum seekers and refugees.

Challenges faced

Over the past 30 years, Eritrea has remained as a one-man-state with no constitution, no multi-party system, no power sharing, no tolerance to different ideas andno prospect of political reform. Poverty is deep and pervasive.Once they flee, most Eritreans do not want to enter the refugee camps in Ethiopia because of the fear that existing good relationship between Isayas and Abiy’s government may lead to repatriation of the Eritreans.  So, after crossing the border and arrive at Tigray region, the Eritreans mix themselves with the locals and most are not voluntary to identify themselves as migrants. Such intention of the migrants together with the laissez-faire policy of the local and federal governments enable them to engage in various activities (as employed and self-employed) mainly in garage, shops, factories, hair dressing, waiters in cafeterias, street vendors and even as house maid that are all reserved for locals by law but competing with them for the limited job opportunities. All these have the potential of escalating unemployment, depressing wages and creating inflationary pressure including on food items and housing rent in the region.

Conclusion

Over the past two decades, the predatory state of the Eritrean government has been worsened: the governance situation has gone from bad to worse; political persecution has been pervasive; social and economic facilities and infrastructures have been deteriorated and the economy remained dismal. No signs of any form of political, social and economic reform in the country. Such desperate political and livelihood opportunities in Eritrea and the hopeless state of the Eritrean regime has led Eritreans to evacuate their country. Since many of the Eritrean asylum seekers are not willing to enter into the refugee camps, Tigray has been paying the heavy cost of hosting these hundreds of thousand refugees. In turn, this put additional socio-economic burdens such as access to food, healthcare, security, public admin, school, utilities, etc. as well as jobs and other livelihood opportunities.

Unless preceded with political and economic reform in Eritrea, the mysterious “peace deal” with Ethiopia and the envisaged re-opening of the boarders to Ethiopia will certainly lead to an intensified exodus of Eritreans to Tigray region. So far, Tigray region has received over 200 thousand refugees (i.e., about 67 thousand living in four camps and over 140 thousand of registered OCP beneficiaries and unregistered migrants). If we take the local population who are residing in the two woredas (Asgede-Tsimbila and Tselemti)[16] where the four refugee camps are located, the proportion of the locals to refugees is about 3:1. In fact, if this continues, Tigray would soon be the highest refugee concentration area in the world which put the socio-economic and security services under extreme burden.Hosting refugees/ migrants has its own socio-economic consequences. For instance, as a result of the Syrian refugee crisis in Lebanon, by 2015 an estimated 170,000 Lebanese had fallen into poverty, unemployment had doubled to around 20 percent and economic losses of some US$7.5 billion had been incurred[17].Adding fuel to the fire, the federal expenditure on infrastructure (such as roads, agro-industrial parks, railway, power equipment, telecom, etc.) in the region was curtailed by the present federal government since last year with a groundless conviction that Tigray was benefited more than its share during the previous governments. Further,the two governments in Ethiopia and Eritrea together with other anti TPLF elements in and out of the country are solidifying their front to encircle TPLF and Tigray.

All in all, the existing influx and the envisaged re-opening of the Ethio-Eritrean boarder can have the potential of putting Tigray towns in to large slum areas with large number of unemployed workforce, acute poverty, etc.  Therefore the fight against all the socio-economic problems of Eritrean migrants have to be out of the refugee camps, i.e., in towns and other economic settings.  Over the past few years, the security situation in Tigray towns has been worsening: day time hanging, theft, begging have been widespread. And the Tigray government is trying to solve all these through tightening its police forces which is one side loped solution. Unless a concerted and adequate effort are undertaken to solve the socio-economic problems of the Eritrean refugees, IDPs and the host community, the situation would soon be worsened and lead to catastrophic. In such a situation, there should be an alternative way of engaging these economic actors through among others, adopting market systems approach through developing cross sector partnership of government, donors, private sector and development partners including financial institutions.

Recommendations

In light of the aforementioned realities and challenges, I propose the below recommendations.

1.      Despite the new Ethiopian refugee policy (Proclamation #: 1110/19) which pledges the full (socio-economic) integration of refugees with the host, current Ethiopian Federal Authorities including ARRA (Agency for Refugees and Returnees Affairs) have no or little appetite to implement refugee economic development programs in Tigray. This is clearly evident from the reaction of the senior officials for livelihoods development proposals that come from international development partners over the past two years. In addition, ARRA’s experience has been limited to refugee’s protection services, not on livelihoods development programs.Further, the federal government is seriouslycrippled in policy implementation. Therefore, Tigray should think of creating an agency that coordinates support from the local and international development partners and facilitates integration of refugeesand host communities in its region.

2.      Given the poor financial resource of the regional government and the influx of the Eritrean migrants, support from the international development partners is so critical and urgent.In addition, the international development partners should use other effective approaches (market led private sector development programs) and partners in the integration of Eritreans refugee and/ or creating economic opportunities for Eritreans and the host. REST, TWA, TDA as well as Adeday, Dedebit MFIs, etc. can serve as a potential partners to enhance the socio-economic integration of the Eritrean refugees in Tigray or other parts of Ethiopia. Particularly, REST has rich experience in mass repatriation and re-integration of Tegaru refugees back to Ethiopia/ Tigrayin the mid-1980s and has the potential toprevent existing crises efficiently.

3.      Eritrean Diaspora community should visit Tigray Region to witness about the exodus and grave situations of their citizens on the ground and do something to save their citizen and their beloved country. Side by side, the international community should work on alleviating the root causes of the influx and put its pressure on the Isayas’s government to undergo political and socio-economic reforms, improve domestic governance, provide freedom to its citizens, and abide by the rule of law as well as create an enabling environment for refugees to return home safely and in dignity.

Footnotes:

1.       UNHCR Factsheet, May 2019.

2.       UNHCR (2018). Global Trends: Forced Displacement.

3.       SiddharthChatterjee, 2019.Sharing the Burden of Refugees; the World Can Do Better, IPS, NAIROBI, Kenya.

4.       CIA World Factbook, 2019.

5.       Ibid.

6.       Sources: Heritage Foundation for Economic Freedom Index and Freedom House for Global Freedom Index.

7.       World population review. Also available at https//www.worldpopulationreview.com.

8.       Ibid.

9.       MuluGetachew(2018). Moving in the face of uncertainty: the life of Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa University, October 2017.

10.    Eritrea Digest, Eritrea-state of the Nation, May 2019

11.    WB (2018). A skills survey for refugees in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa.

12.    UNHCR, Registration Unit Author: UNHCR Ethiopia, Information Management Feedback: ethadodm@unhcr.org

13.    Eritrea-state of the Nation, eritreadigest.com, May 22, 2019.

14.    WB (2018). A skills survey for refugees in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa.

15.    Samuel Hall Consulting (2014), Living out of Camp: Alternatives to Camp-based Assistance for Eritrean Refugees in Ethiopia, commissioned by the NRC

16.    The total population of the two woredas is 314,272 as of 2017 (i.e., 155,741 in Asgede-Tsimbila and 158,531 in Tselemtiworedas. (Source: CSA, 2013. Population Projection of Ethiopia for All Regions AtWereda Level from 2014 – 2017, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia).

17.    WB (2013). Economic and social Impact of the Syrian Conflict. (Poverty reduction and economic management department Middle East and North Africa Region) as quoted by ILO Response to Syrian Refugee Crisis in Lebanon, 2016.

---