By Ermias Hailu
Egypt Reaction to the Construction of Great EthiopianRenaissance Dam (GERD)
Egypt has been “the behind the curtain” organizer, financier, and leader of the instabilities Ethiopia has been experiencing during the last ten years. Egypt has developed and implemented a “Grand Ethiopian Destabilization Strategy” to destabilize Ethiopia. The strategy was developed after a careful study and analysis of the internal weaknesses of Ethiopia, such asthe fluid nature of EPRDF, growing dissatisfaction of the Ethiopian people on EPRDF governance, historic and current rivalry within different ethnic and religious groups, weaknesses of the current federal structure and economic disparity and poverty. Egypt’s destabilizationstrategy has been implemented by involving various foot soldiers such as President Isaias of Eritrea, Dr. Berhanu Nega of Ginbot 7, Ato Daud Ibsa of OLF and so many underground agents with full involvement of various media outlets such as ESAT.The Egyptian intelligence has recruited many Ethiopian agents sold out for money and their political ambitions and these agents have been working 24/7 hand in hand with Egypt and Eritrea in spying and destabilization of Ethiopia (Please refer to Prophet Daniel book detailed below for details).
The central focus of Egypt’s destabilization strategy has been to weaken EPRDF by eliminating its leadership and dividing the Ethiopian people by demonizing the TPLF and the Tigrayan people which they have been able to implement it effectively. According to Daniel Abera’s book titled “When the Real World is Revealed” dated September 2014, PM Meles was killed by a “radioactive material exposure” that was planned and executed by the Egyptian’s intelligence.
The destabilization strategy of Egypt has the following goals:
- Weaken the EPRDF government andinstall Egypt friendly governmentin Ethiopia that will sign a binding water share agreement that protectsso called “historical share “ofEgypt (an agreement between Sudan and Egypt in 1959with the then Egypt installed President of Sudan, Gen. Ibrahim Abboud,allocated 78% of the Nile water by volume to Egypt). If this goal is achieved, Egypt will allow the completion of GERD as it will benefit Egypt as “free of charge” reservoir.
- Incase Egypt fails to install a friendly government; it will continue to destabilize and weaken Ethiopia including itsdefense force and destroy the GERD prior to its completion.
Where does Egypt stand regarding realization of its goals?
- Ethiopia is currently not stable and undergoing political transition.
- Even though Egypt has a very high hope that you will be easily manipulated to sign a water share agreement that benefits Egypt, it could not succeed so far except the verbal commitment you gave to President Sisi in Cairo on July 11, 2018.
- However, Egypt is currently pressurizingEthiopia through USA and World Bank to agree on the dam filling and operation agreement that could jeopardize its sovereignty over the GERD and the Abay river. It has been recently reported in the media that Ethiopia is ready to sign the agreement soon.
According to Joint Statement of Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, the United States and the World Bank dated January 31, 2020 the negotiating parties have agreed on the following issues and will prepare all agreements for signature by the end of February 2020:
1. A schedule for a stage-based filling plan of the GERD;
2. A mitigation mechanism for the filling of the GERD during drought, prolonged drought, and prolonged periods of dry years; and
3. A mitigation mechanism for the annual and long-term operation of the GERD in drought, prolonged drought, and prolonged periods of dry years.
From the limited information available in the media, it looks the understandings reached on issues item 1and 2 above may not pose major risks on Ethiopia. However, on the issue related to item 3 above, it looks the terms “drought, prolonged drought and prolonged period of dry years” are included to prevent Ethiopia from using its water by putting extended, unmeasurable and subjective conditions. Sinceany drought on Egypt or Sudan is caused by shortage of rain in Ethiopia; the risk of drought affects Ethiopia one year ahead of Egypt and Sudan. Considering the fact that Egypt has been mitigating this risk for generationsusing the Aswan dam, it is unreasonable for Egypt to ask for additional security to mitigate this risk using the water stored in GERDwhile Ethiopia is already exposed to the same drought related risk which has higher impact on Ethiopia’s rain fed subsistence farming. Ethiopia has the sovereign right on its water and should give priority to its people and use the water stored in the GERD as a risk mitigationto avoids famine. In case Ethiopia decides to share part of the GERD stored water during drought periodto Sudan and Egypt, it must be purely at the discretion of Ethiopia and there should be a financial compensation to that effect from Sudan and Egypt. There should be also obligatory conditions specified on Egypt and Sudan to use the water from the Nile in an efficient and effective manner and with out taking the water from its natural course. It is a known fact that Egypt has built secret canals that takes the Nile water to Sini desert and elsewhere in violation of international regulations.
Any commitment from Ethiopia to guarantee minimum annual volume flow from GERD, as part of the dam operating agreement, will be taken as the minimum amount that Ethiopia has to give-in as a share to both Egypt and Sudan and care must be taken not to commit any amount until agreed by a “water share agreement” that will be negotiated and agreed in the future. Based on the information from media Ethiopia has agreed 37.5 billion Cubic Meter annual flow the minimum annual flow to trigger drought conditions, considering the average total Abay river volume flow per year is 49 billion cubic meters, Ethiopia is guaranteeingminimum 76.5% of the average annual flow to Egypt and Sudan. With out any doubt Egypt and Sudan will use the minimum guaranteed amount as the minimum base line during upcoming water share agreements negotiation.However, with this guarantee Egypt has already secured its share and it will not have any interest to negotiate water share agreement in the future.
Furthermore, any agreement signed with Egypt and Sudanmust be conditional to both countries committing that they will not be directly or indirectly involved on any activity that destabilizes or harms the interests of Ethiopia such as security, economy and political interests. How can you be sure that Egypt will stop sabotaging Ethiopia after the signature of the agreement under negotiation?
This is, therefore, to appeal to you that the following are considered toprotect Ethiopia’s water sovereignty and interest:
- The drought related risk mitigation requested by Egypt as part of the long-term operation of the dam should not be accepted by Ethiopia for the reasons stated above.
- The water share agreement that protects Egypt’s so called “historical rights” looks to me that it is already indirectly incorporated in the risk mitigation minimum triggercondition related to the agreed 37.5 billion cubic meters. This will give the lion share of the annual volume flow of the Abay River to Egypt without win-win arrangement and benefit to Ethiopia.
