Friday, 15 April 2022

Is TPLF following the right strategy and tactic in the current civil war?

 Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) has been fighting the mercenary army of Ethiopia, Amara militia and Eritrea. Tigray Defense  Forces (TDF) have been able to drive Ethiopia's mercenary army from most of Tigray. Western Tigray is still in the hands of Amara local army, Eritrean mercenary army and Fano ( Amara Youth Group).

Tigray has withdrawn it's army from Afar region (Berhale and other subdistrics) to facilitate the humanitarian truce, which was signed between Tigrayan Forces and Ethiopia a week ago. However up to now only 20 tracks of goods from FAO and Red Cross have reached Mekelle. Another 50 tracks with humanitarian assistance are  expected to arrive Mekelle today, which meets only 2% of aid needed in Tigray.

TDF is actively involved in driving Eritrean army from Western Tigray. It has also routed out the Amara militia. However, there are still hostile armed groups supported by Ethiopia and Eritrea. TDF would need to carry out extensive military campaigns to make Western Tigray safe for access to Sudan and South Ethiopia.

In Ethiopia itself, TDF military activities are limited or non-existent except in Tigray. TDF has no political involvement in Ethiopia beyond the borders of Tigray. This should be reviewed and a coalition of political partys should be formed. TDF's military victories should be followed by political victories in Ethiopia to form a transition government that will lead to free elections.

TDF should call Ethiopians to unite and overthrow Abiy Ahmed Ali's government, which is illegitimate. Non-Amara Ethiopian's have been organizing them selves. TDF should show political support and form united front.

Eritrea's invasion of Tigray should be condemned and |TDF should  prepare to defend Tigray from the Eritrean invaders, which means  TDF should march to Eritrea and liberate it from Issayas Afeworki fascist regime.

In conclusion, we need a clear political involvement in Ethiopia. There should be a coalition between TDF, OLF and other forces.Without controlling the central government, there will be no peace. TDF has the military power to control Ethiopia. It should form coalition with democratic forces in Ethiopia to take control of the central power. TDF needs first to address Eritrea's invasion with counter-invasion.