Tuesday, 30 June 2020

Warning to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed-Your political adultery is destroying Ethiopia!

By Ermias Hailu

Your Excellency PM Abiy Ahmed,

The continuing rivalry and fight between TPLF and your party PP which may be culminated with a bloody civil war has provoked me to send you a warning and to share to you the following story.

The 16th century Ethiopia (Abyssinia) faced the most formidable threat of its survival from a protracted war that was ignited by Grange Ahmad. Grange Ahmad who came from the present-day eastern part of Ethiopia (Harar) invaded the southern, central and northern Ethiopia to advance his mission of conquering, Islamizing and ruling Ethiopia by force. He almost succeeded to control and rule Ethiopia, except he was not able to completely capture or kill the then King. However, he was able to loot and burn so many churches, convert large part of the population to Islam and divide and rule Ethiopia for about 14 years. In the most heroic demonstration of their faith, priests and monks were throwing themselves into the fire of burning churches and monasteries, which were torched by Grange Ahmad troops, to avoid forced conversion to Islam.

One Ethiopian regional ruler that played a major role in defeating Grange Ahmad was Bahre Negash Yeshak that was ruling the partial part of the present-day Eritrea and part of Tigray. He was the one who led the 400 ‘modern rifles armed’ Portuguese soldiers all the way to Debre Damo (Tigray) from Massawa to join them with Ethiopian army. To cut the long history short, after a number of battles between the Ethiopian /Portuguese joint army and Grange Ahmad’s army, it was one of the Portuguese soldiers who fatally wounded Grange Ahmad and reversed the course of the war. Bahre Negash Yeshak and his army were also participated in that crucial war.

After the end of the war between the dynasty of Ethiopia and the leaders of Harar Emirates, the central government of Ethiopia became very weak and faced power struggle among various rivals including the expansion of Oromos. During this time, Bahre Negash Yeshak decided to revolt against the government of Ethiopia and started to conspire against the Emperor of that time (Emperor Minas) with the objective of replacing him with a puppet king. As part of the plan, Bahre Negash Yeshak established joint front with rivals of Emperor Minas from Showa and tried to kill the King through sabotage or direct war but without success. Bahre Negash knowing his plot to establish a puppet king was not successful, decided to be King of Ethiopia for himself by building superior military force. To that effect, he made an agreement with the Turkish authorities, who were occupying Massawa, and with Jesuit missionaries. As part of the deal, he gave the Turkish the land between Massawa and Debarwa and he also promised to the Jesuit’s that he will be converted to Catholic once he got their military support. Consequently, he claimed Fasil (a rival from Showa to King Minas) is the legitimate heir of the throne and promised to put him on the throne. However, both Bahre Negash Yeshak and the Turkish army were defeated by Emperor Minas on April 20, 1562 and Bahre Negash was forced to escape and live in Debarwa which was already under the territory of the Turkish. For unknown reasons, Emperor Minas failed to capture or kill Bahre Negash Yeshak and returned to Showa and died in 1563, due to malaria infection. After the death of Emperor Minas, the struggle among prospective rivals to replace him was further intensified but ultimately his 13 years old son Serse Dengel replaced him. The new King was visionary, very wise political and military strategist and was able to defend Ethiopia both internally and externally except the threat from Bahre Negash who at that time had established joint front with Turkish, Emirates of Harar as well as internal rivals of the King. Bahre Negash relentlessly worked for 15 years to corner and subdue King Serse Dengel but without success. In the year 1577 Serse Dengel defeated the South front of Bahre Negash by defeating Mohammed IV of Emirates of Harar.

After repeated unsuccessful diplomatic efforts to bring Bahre Negash Yeshak to peace, Emperor Serse Dengel with the support of some novelties of Tigray, defeated both Bahre Negash and Turkish army in November 1578 in a place called Adi Koro. In that war both then arch enemies of central government of Ethiopia, Bahre Negash Yeshak and his ally the Turkish Pasha were killed and Emperor Serse Dengel marched all the way to Debarwa (which was the capital city of Bahre Negash and the Turkish) without any resistance.

The reason I tried to outline the above brief history of 16th century is because I found it to be a mirror image of the Ethiopia of the 21st century. Just replace Bahre Negash Yehsak with President Isaias and Debarwa with Asmara and the region that was administered by Bahre Negash with Eritrea. Replace Turkish with Egypt and Emirates of Harar with Al-Shabaab of Somalia. With minor changes in geographical location and geopolitical structure, the historical destabilizing actors of Ethiopia have been one and the same despite who is governing it.

It is a well-known fact that the objective of President Isaias when he started the 1998-2000 war with Ethiopia was not for a piece of land in Badme or other villages along the Ethio-Eritrea border but to subdue TPLF/EPRDF and make it to be a puppet government so that Eritrea would be the dominant political, military and economic power in the Horn of Africa. Incase EPRDF was not willing to be subdued president Isaias’s plan was to destroy EPRDF and restructure the Horn of Africa (at least Eritrea and Ethiopia) and rule it directly or indirectly. When PM Meles (junior to President Isaias) got the attention of the world superpowers (due to Ethiopia’s historical and geopolitical position in the world), President Isaias was burning with jealousy and regretted his decision to go only with Eritrea and leaving the remaining Ethiopia for TPLF/EPRDF. When he started the surprise invasion of Ethiopia by capturing Badme, he was very ready to defeat EPRDF but failed to speedily advance to Tigray and other parts of Ethiopia (God gave EPRDF two weeks breathing time that enabled it to mobilize its militia and regular forces). The gallant Ethiopian militia (with no current training) and the regular army were able to stop President Isaias’s invading army at a very costly price (price paid for EPRDF’s failure to anticipate threats from Eritrea timely and made proactive preparation). Ultimately after two years of bloody war, that you were also a participant, Ethiopia defeated the army of President Isaias at heavy cost but failed to break its back bone and eliminate the threat once and for all (this was by the decision of PM Meles may be under the pressure of the super powers). What a missed opportunity? As outlined above same mistake was committed by Emperor Minas 458 years ago. Spiritually speaking both Bahre Negash Yeshak and President Isaias are driven or instigated by the same spirit which is still active until today.

Over the last 20 years (after the end of the war) president Isaias has been implementing the destabilization strategy of Egypt and was hyper busy supporting, coordinating, funding and leading any anti TPLF/ EPRDF elements like ESAT, GINBOT7, TPDM, OLF, Al-Shabaab etc. Until two years ago, Eritrea was the central command post of Dr. Berhanu and his allies who have instigated ethnic based conflict in Ethiopia, primarily the persecution, robbery and killing of innocent Tigrayans that history will remember forever.

Your excellency PM Abiy Ahmed, over the last two years President Isaias has established a tactical personal relationship with you ( he had similar unprincipled relationship with PM Meles about 30 years ago, until he back stabbed him in May 1998) and he has continued interfering into the internal affairs of Ethiopia with the objective of restructuring the political order of Ethiopia to serve his evil purpose. Without any doubt, the main root cause for the ever-widening divergence of outlook, mistrust and the tense relationship between you and the TPLF leadership is related to your unprincipled relationship with President Isaias!

Leveraging on the relationship with you the following are what President Isaias plans to accomplish:
- Continue to add fuel to the already tense relationship between you, TPLF and other parties and destabilize Ethiopia to be an easy prey for Egypt
- Destroy TPLF by using the army of Ethiopia against TPLF (your current warning to TPLF in relation to the election issue is in line to President Isaias wish). Whatever President Isaias may pretend his army is very weak (no youth in Eritrea) and his plan is to use you to destroy TPLF. Knowing that you are a man of God ( with all of your weaknesses such as trying to please every body at the cost of your mentor TPLF and the Tigray people, the fact that you were a double agent while you worked as intelligence officer, all your ongoing ungodly efforts to divide TPLF and the Tigray people, playing President Isaias with TPLF, the killing in West Oromia, etc.), I expect you to listen to what the Spirit of God is saying and avert civil war, instead of being manipulated by the unrepentant dictator President Isaias who has so much blood of Eritreans and Ethiopians( including General Seare Mekonnen) on his hands.
- Once TPLF is eliminated President Isaias is going to try to make you his puppet and he will come against you if you do not comply to his instructions (exactly what he tried to do with PM Meles).
However, I would like you to know that President Isaias time, on the Spiritual Realm, is over and you will witness his demise very soon. The time has come for a new Eritrea government that is friendly with the people of Tigray and Ethiopia to be born and you are going to face TPLF in the absence of President Isaias in a very near future. I strongly advise you to immediately stop playing President Isaias against TPLF and depend on the God you trust on how to reconcile and make peace with TPLF and the Tigray people. Please do not waste your time to create division between TPLF and the Tigray people as both are bonded by the unbreakable blood covenant that each Tigrayan family paid during the armed struggle. May I also remind you that it is on that same blood that your throne is standing!
The killing of the prominent singer Hachaalu is also further to damage your relationship with the Oromo people and get ready to humble yourself before your God so that you may get His mercy! You know very well that God does not give blank check and He wants you to listen to His Spirit and obey rather than trying to build your idolatry image day and night. If you are from GOD and for God from now on wards your word should be Yes or No ( Matthew 5:37). You have acted as chameleon over the last two years stop that and act as a man of God!

Your Excellency, it is not too late for you to be on the right side of history!

God bless Ethiopia !

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