(CNN)Look
at Egypt on Google Earth and you will see a green line snaking through a
sand-colored landscape, fanning out into a triangle in the north.
This
emerald ribbon is the vegetation that grows on either side of the Nile
River and around its delta. It is Egypt's only fertile land -- and
testament to the country's reliance on this fabled waterway.
The Nile River Basin extends to 11 African countries,
but Egypt -- one of the oldest civilizations in the world -- has
controlled the river and used the lion's share of its waters for
millennia.
That could be about to change.
Ethiopia's dam
The Blue Nile River is the Nile's
largest tributary and supplies about 85% of the water entering Egypt.
Ethiopia is building its $5 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
(GERD) on the Blue Nile, near the border with Sudan. When completed, it
will be the largest dam in Africa, generating around 6,000 megawatts of electricity for both domestic use and export.
Ethiopia's
ambitious project is designed to help lift its fast-growing population
out of poverty. But the new dam also puts management of the flow of the
Blue Nile in Ethiopia's hands -- and that has sparked a power shift in
the region.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam under construction in 2015.(about 70% complete)
"It's like somebody has control over a
tap. If the Ethiopian people for some reason want to reduce the amount
of water coming to Egypt, it would be a great problem," says Aly
El-Bahrawy, professor of hydraulics at Cairo's Ain Shams University.
Water scarcity
is a serious issue in the north African nation, according to the UN's
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). In 2014, Egypt had 637 cubic
meters per capita, compared to 9,538 cubic meters per capita in the
United States -- nearly 15 times as much.
With its population predicted to reach 120 million by 2030,
Egypt is on track to hit the threshold for "absolute water scarcity" --
less than 500 cubic meters per capita -- according to the FAO.
And that's without factoring in any complications caused by the dam.
Editor's note: Ethiopia has the need to dam the Nile for the benefit of all riparian countries. Ethiopia's population will be 175 million in 2030 (from the current 110 million) and there will be a need for water. Egypt should stop day dreaming.The Nile has been part of Ethiopia since the pre-biblical times and is part of the Ethiopian psyche. We believe both Ethiopia and the other riparian countries should rationally harness the Nile to the benefit of all. (Aksum Post)
Blue and White
Although
it is most strongly associated with Egypt, neither of the Nile's two
sources are situated in the country. The White Nile begins at Lake
Victoria -- Africa's largest lake, which sits between Tanzania, Kenya
and Uganda -- while the Blue Nile originates at Lake Tana in the
Ethiopian Highlands. The two rivers merge near the Sudanese capital
Khartoum to form the main waterway, which flows north through Egypt to
the Mediterranean.
Egypt's claim on the Nile's waters has,
however, been enshrined in law for nearly 90 years, in the
Anglo-Egyptian Treaty of 1929, signed between Egypt and Great Britain,
and the 1959 Bilateral Agreement between Egypt and Sudan. Collectively
known as the Nile Waters Agreements, the treaties grant 18.5 billion
cubic meters of water a year to Sudan and 55.5 billion cubic meters to Egypt.
The Nile Waters Agreements allocated no water to Ethiopia -- even though it is home to a major source -- or the other eight countries of the Nile Basin, whose rivers feed into Lake Victoria and contribute to the White Nile.
What's
more, the agreements granted Egypt veto power over construction
projects on the Nile River and its tributaries anywhere upstream.
"It
is generally believed that Egypt received such favorable terms (during
colonial times) ... because the country was very important to the United
Kingdom's agricultural interests, particularly its cotton fields," says
John Mukum Mbaku, professor of economics at Weber State University in
Utah and co-author of "Governing the Nile River Basin."
Egypt not only needs the Nile waters, it believes it has a legal and historical right to them. Other countries disagree.
"The
Nile River Basin's upstream riparian states argue that the Nile Waters
Agreements are unfair, inequitable and unsustainable," says Mbaku.
Upstream countries, including Ethiopia, maintain that "they are not
bound by these agreements, because they were never parties to them,"
Mbaku says.
In 1999, the Nile River
Basin States started negotiations to design a legal framework that
would provide for a fairer allocation of the Nile's waters, but Egypt
and Sudan would not compromise on the "absolute protection of their
prior rights" and no consensus was reached, says Mbaku.
Egypt not only needs the Nile waters, it believes it has a legal and historical right to them. Other countries disagree.
"The
Nile River Basin's upstream riparian states argue that the Nile Waters
Agreements are unfair, inequitable and unsustainable," says Mbaku.
Upstream countries, including Ethiopia, maintain that "they are not
bound by these agreements, because they were never parties to them,"
Mbaku says.
In 1999, the Nile River
Basin States started negotiations to design a legal framework that
would provide for a fairer allocation of the Nile's waters, but Egypt
and Sudan would not compromise on the "absolute protection of their
prior rights" and no consensus was reached, says Mbaku.
In March 2015, the heads of state of
Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia met in Khartoum to start negotiations over the
filling and operation of the dam. Numerous meetings have followed, but a
settlement has not been reached. The Nile Waters Agreements have proved
a particularly intractable sticking point: "While Egyptian officials
say publicly that they want to talk with the Ethiopians ... they still
think those agreements should be honored," says Mbaku.
In 2017, with around 60% of construction completed, talks broke down and Egypt scaled up its rhetoric again, but this year, the tide seemed to be turning.
In May, the irrigation ministers of all
three countries agreed to establish a scientific study group to assess
the impact of the dam on downstream flows. A month later, Ethiopia's new
prime minister Abiy Ahmed visited Egypt and reassured Egyptian
president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi that he wanted to aid development in
Ethiopia without harming the Egyptian people.
Abiy took office in April 2018 and has gained credentials as a proactive peacemaker by ending his country's cold war with Eritrea.
Mbaku believes that Abiy seeks harmony rather than confrontation with
his regional neighbors, but cautions that the Ethiopians know they are
now bargaining from a position of strength.
"The fact that the Ethiopians were able
to get away with constructing the dam has given them a morale boost,"
says Mbaku. "It has shown them that the Egyptians are not as powerful as
everyone thought."
Fill speed
How
much time Ethiopia will spend filling the dam's reservoir is a critical
issue for Egypt and has been the focus of recent negotiations. The
quicker the fill, the less water will be released downstream during that
time.
"Technically, they could
fill it in three years," says Kevin Wheeler of the Environmental Change
Institute at the UK's University of Oxford. "Egypt would prefer a longer
time range of around 10 years."
The
weather is another key factor. "If there's an alignment between the
filling and a drought, then even a slow fill could be problematic," says
Wheeler.
Calculations are complex
because the variables are open to negotiation. "Ethiopia focuses on
average rainfall conditions when planning. Egypt prefers to plan for
worst case scenarios," says Wheeler. "The closer the two countries work
together, the more safely they will be able to fill the reservoir."
"Everyone should hope for rain during those years," he adds.
Khaled AbuZeid, secretary general of the Egyptian Water Partnership, a
non-governmental organization, says he is more worried about
"accumulative long-term losses caused by the dam once it is in
operation." At present, he says, when the river flows are high, Egypt
stores water in Lake Nasser, the reservoir behind its own dam -- the
High Aswan Dam -- which it then extracts during dry years.
"If the reservoir behind the GERD is
operated at higher levels, it will result in huge losses due to seepage
and evaporation," says AbuZeid. "The water lost would, previously, have
found its way to the High Aswan Dam."
Losses
from the GERD will be partially offset by a reduction in evaporation
from the High Aswan Dam, but AbuZeid calculates that the net additional
losses from the GERD could amount to 60 billion cubic meters over a
10-year period.
His research has
indicated that in dry years, up to 625,000 acres of agriculture land
could be put out of service, resulting in economic losses of about $2
billion per year, and leaving up to one million farmers and workers
jobless. "It would also reduce hydropower generation by the High Aswan
Dam by up to 40 percent," he says.
Egypt
is taking steps to shore up its water supply by other means: recycling
agricultural drainage water and treated wastewater, increasing the
number of desalination plants that supply coastal areas, and restricting
the cultivation of water-intensive crops including rice, sugar cane and
bananas.
Temporary reprieve
The GERD was supposed to be finished in 2017,
but due to delays, it is only two-thirds complete. In August,
construction stalled when the Ethiopian government took the contract for
turbine installation away from Metec, a state-owned company, in an effort to stamp out corruption.
But Egypt's reprieve is only temporary.
Once Ethiopia's grand project is back on track, close cooperation
between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt will be essential if the negative
impacts of the dam are to be kept to a minimum.
A
successful outcome will require political savvy, compromise and
goodwill. Wheeler says that transparency over information, and the
development of effective data-sharing and communication platforms, are
also crucial.
No one yet knows how
these mechanisms will work, but what's clear is that Egypt can no longer
bank on the water allocation it has received until now and that
Ethiopia's dam will grant the country a greater level of political
influence.
Mbaku points out that
for the first two Nile Waters Agreements, Ethiopia wasn't even
consulted. "Now, Egypt is not as domineering as it used to be, and the
Ethiopians are in a very strong position to dictate terms," he says.
As
water becomes an increasingly scarce and contested resource in many
parts of the world, all eyes will be on the test case being played out
along the Nile.
_____________________________________
Which way
and what next Ethiopia?
Mark
Lemma
I am very much confused and disappointed by the following
news: There are various articles written about the PM of Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed
quoted saying that “The GERD will at least delayed and maybe even it will not
be built to the end” ….” …at least any time soon…^
Al Jazeera is writing: “Will The Largest Dam In Africa Ever Be
Completed” and also writes that America is weakening Ethiopi’s military and
wants only Ethiopia to be a partner in the fight against terrorism. Fellows I
don’t know but if that “terrorism” is not directly affecting Ethiopia’s
interest then Ethiopia must call it quit because it is not Ethiopia’s war.
Pakistan did that and has developed an excellent relationship with The Peoples
Republic of China while Ethiopia is losing a good friend and ally: China. Does
any Ethiopian in his/her right mind think and believe that the U.S in
particular under Trump want to see Ethiopia becoming an emerging economic and
military power in the region and globally ? NO way. The U.S is trying its best
to weaken The Peoples Republic of China but that will be an impossible task.
Going back to Pakistan though, the country similar to India is acquiring The
Russian S-400 and possibly in the near future the S-500 Air defense system
which is claimed to be the best in the World and so has Turkey despite
Washington’s threats has bought the S-400 Defense system which according to
them can shoot down the U.S F-22; F-35 needless to mention F-16 and F-18’s plus
can take down the Tomahawk
CNN now writes under the heading: “Massive dam threatens Egypt’s
portion of the Nile” further when you click open the headline it reads: “Is
Ethiopia Taking Control of The River Nile?” And if you read the article
carefully it is anti-Ethiopian in an implicit way but also explicitly. No
mention of Egypt’s vast underground water reserve? This so-called liberal media
as well as the plantation newspaper: The Washington Post is as hawkish and war
mongers as any other conservative media as long as it serves the U.S interest
and generates employment, brings more money to the U.S and stays as a
“backbone” for the dollar. The Stone Age dictatorial regime of Saudi Arabia
whose airs they all leak left right and middle are doing just that.
Ethiopia seems to be dictated by the joint Trump
administration and the house of the Saudis and namely MBS. What an irony when
the age old vassal state = Colony of The Axumite Empire Of Ethiopia till the
days of the Arabian prophet Muhammed’s grandfather Abdul Motaleb is now
assigned by the U.S to broker a peace deal between Ethiopia and Eritrea and
signed in Jeddah Saudi Arabia by Abyi Ahmed and Isayas Afewerki. Arabia today
known as Saudi Arabia founded only in 1932 by Ibn Saud is nothing but a
hotchpotch territory consisting of: Hijaz, Najdi & part of eastern Arabia,
(Al Ahsa), and southern Arabia (Asir). Just because of its Petro dollar is
practically doing anything it wants and according to many observers Saudis
having a significant influence directly and indirectly also dictating the U.S
administration and even coming out clean after committing genocide and individual
assassinations as well as financing terrorism in the U.S soil itself and having
significant influence starting from the oval office itself.
What now Ethiopia?. Development or Stagnation, corruption, and
total degeneration of Ethiopia? Independence or Slavery? To Be dictated by
Ethiopia’s old vassals = colonies of Saudis and Egypt?
And or be the Captain of ship sailing the stormy weather
forward to reach the destination of agricultural and industrial development and
strengthening the countries defense to the most highest level possible that can
deter any and all external enemies ?
