Sunday 21 October 2018

Is Ethiopia taking control of the River Nile?



(CNN)Look at Egypt on Google Earth and you will see a green line snaking through a sand-colored landscape, fanning out into a triangle in the north.
This emerald ribbon is the vegetation that grows on either side of the Nile River and around its delta. It is Egypt's only fertile land -- and testament to the country's reliance on this fabled waterway.



The Nile River Basin extends to 11 African countries, but Egypt -- one of the oldest civilizations in the world -- has controlled the river and used the lion's share of its waters for millennia.
That could be about to change. 

Ethiopia's  dam

The Blue Nile River is the Nile's largest tributary and supplies about 85% of the water entering Egypt. Ethiopia is building its $5 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile, near the border with Sudan. When completed, it will be the largest dam in Africa, generating around 6,000 megawatts of electricity for both domestic use and export.
Ethiopia's ambitious project is designed to help lift its fast-growing population out of poverty. But the new dam also puts management of the flow of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia's hands -- and that has sparked a power shift in the region.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam under construction in 2015. 
 The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam under construction in 2015.(about 70% complete)

For the Egyptians, the Nile is, literally, a lifeline. The vast majority of the country's 97 million people live along its banks.
"It's like somebody has control over a tap. If the Ethiopian people for some reason want to reduce the amount of water coming to Egypt, it would be a great problem," says Aly El-Bahrawy, professor of hydraulics at Cairo's Ain Shams University.
Water scarcity is a serious issue in the north African nation, according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). In 2014, Egypt had 637 cubic meters per capita, compared to 9,538 cubic meters per capita in the United States -- nearly 15 times as much.
With its population predicted to reach 120 million by 2030, Egypt is on track to hit the threshold for "absolute water scarcity" -- less than 500 cubic meters per capita -- according to the FAO.
And that's without factoring in any complications caused by the dam.

Editor's note: Ethiopia has the need to dam the Nile for the benefit of all riparian countries. Ethiopia's population will be 175 million in 2030 (from the current 110 million) and there will be a need for water. Egypt should stop day dreaming.The Nile has been part of Ethiopia since the pre-biblical times and is part of the Ethiopian psyche. We believe both Ethiopia and the other riparian countries should rationally harness the Nile to the benefit of all. (Aksum Post)

Blue and White

Although it is most strongly associated with Egypt, neither of the Nile's two sources are situated in the country. The White Nile begins at Lake Victoria -- Africa's largest lake, which sits between Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda -- while the Blue Nile originates at Lake Tana in the Ethiopian Highlands. The two rivers merge near the Sudanese capital Khartoum to form the main waterway, which flows north through Egypt to the Mediterranean. 
Egypt's claim on the Nile's waters has, however, been enshrined in law for nearly 90 years, in the Anglo-Egyptian Treaty of 1929, signed between Egypt and Great Britain, and the 1959 Bilateral Agreement between Egypt and Sudan. Collectively known as the Nile Waters Agreements, the treaties grant 18.5 billion cubic meters of water a year to Sudan and 55.5 billion cubic meters to Egypt.
The Nile Waters Agreements allocated no water to Ethiopia -- even though it is home to a major source -- or the other eight countries of the Nile Basin, whose rivers feed into Lake Victoria and contribute to the White Nile.
What's more, the agreements granted Egypt veto power over construction projects on the Nile River and its tributaries anywhere upstream.
"It is generally believed that Egypt received such favorable terms (during colonial times) ... because the country was very important to the United Kingdom's agricultural interests, particularly its cotton fields," says John Mukum Mbaku, professor of economics at Weber State University in Utah and co-author of "Governing the Nile River Basin."
Egypt not only needs the Nile waters, it believes it has a legal and historical right to them. Other countries disagree.
"The Nile River Basin's upstream riparian states argue that the Nile Waters Agreements are unfair, inequitable and unsustainable," says Mbaku. Upstream countries, including Ethiopia, maintain that "they are not bound by these agreements, because they were never parties to them," Mbaku says.
In 1999, the Nile River Basin States started negotiations to design a legal framework that would provide for a fairer allocation of the Nile's waters, but Egypt and Sudan would not compromise on the "absolute protection of their prior rights" and no consensus was reached, says Mbaku.
Egypt not only needs the Nile waters, it believes it has a legal and historical right to them. Other countries disagree.
"The Nile River Basin's upstream riparian states argue that the Nile Waters Agreements are unfair, inequitable and unsustainable," says Mbaku. Upstream countries, including Ethiopia, maintain that "they are not bound by these agreements, because they were never parties to them," Mbaku says.
In 1999, the Nile River Basin States started negotiations to design a legal framework that would provide for a fairer allocation of the Nile's waters, but Egypt and Sudan would not compromise on the "absolute protection of their prior rights" and no consensus was reached, says Mbaku.
In March 2015, the heads of state of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia met in Khartoum to start negotiations over the filling and operation of the dam. Numerous meetings have followed, but a settlement has not been reached. The Nile Waters Agreements have proved a particularly intractable sticking point: "While Egyptian officials say publicly that they want to talk with the Ethiopians ... they still think those agreements should be honored," says Mbaku.
In 2017, with around 60% of construction completed, talks broke down and Egypt scaled up its rhetoric again, but this year, the tide seemed to be turning. 
In May, the irrigation ministers of all three countries agreed to establish a scientific study group to assess the impact of the dam on downstream flows. A month later, Ethiopia's new prime minister Abiy Ahmed visited Egypt and reassured Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi that he wanted to aid development in Ethiopia without harming the Egyptian people.
Abiy took office in April 2018 and has gained credentials as a proactive peacemaker by ending his country's cold war with Eritrea. Mbaku believes that Abiy seeks harmony rather than confrontation with his regional neighbors, but cautions that the Ethiopians know they are now bargaining from a position of strength. 
"The fact that the Ethiopians were able to get away with constructing the dam has given them a morale boost," says Mbaku. "It has shown them that the Egyptians are not as powerful as everyone thought."

Fill speed

How much time Ethiopia will spend filling the dam's reservoir is a critical issue for Egypt and has been the focus of recent negotiations. The quicker the fill, the less water will be released downstream during that time.
"Technically, they could fill it in three years," says Kevin Wheeler of the Environmental Change Institute at the UK's University of Oxford. "Egypt would prefer a longer time range of around 10 years."
The weather is another key factor. "If there's an alignment between the filling and a drought, then even a slow fill could be problematic," says Wheeler.
Calculations are complex because the variables are open to negotiation. "Ethiopia focuses on average rainfall conditions when planning. Egypt prefers to plan for worst case scenarios," says Wheeler. "The closer the two countries work together, the more safely they will be able to fill the reservoir."
"Everyone should hope for rain during those years," he adds. 
Khaled AbuZeid, secretary general of the Egyptian Water Partnership, a non-governmental organization, says he is more worried about "accumulative long-term losses caused by the dam once it is in operation." At present, he says, when the river flows are high, Egypt stores water in Lake Nasser, the reservoir behind its own dam -- the High Aswan Dam -- which it then extracts during dry years.
"If the reservoir behind the GERD is operated at higher levels, it will result in huge losses due to seepage and evaporation," says AbuZeid. "The water lost would, previously, have found its way to the High Aswan Dam."
Losses from the GERD will be partially offset by a reduction in evaporation from the High Aswan Dam, but AbuZeid calculates that the net additional losses from the GERD could amount to 60 billion cubic meters over a 10-year period.
His research has indicated that in dry years, up to 625,000 acres of agriculture land could be put out of service, resulting in economic losses of about $2 billion per year, and leaving up to one million farmers and workers jobless. "It would also reduce hydropower generation by the High Aswan Dam by up to 40 percent," he says.
Egypt is taking steps to shore up its water supply by other means: recycling agricultural drainage water and treated wastewater, increasing the number of desalination plants that supply coastal areas, and restricting the cultivation of water-intensive crops including rice, sugar cane and bananas.

Temporary reprieve

The GERD was supposed to be finished in 2017, but due to delays, it is only two-thirds complete. In August, construction stalled when the Ethiopian government took the contract for turbine installation away from Metec, a state-owned company, in an effort to stamp out corruption. 
But Egypt's reprieve is only temporary. Once Ethiopia's grand project is back on track, close cooperation between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt will be essential if the negative impacts of the dam are to be kept to a minimum.
A successful outcome will require political savvy, compromise and goodwill. Wheeler says that transparency over information, and the development of effective data-sharing and communication platforms, are also crucial.
No one yet knows how these mechanisms will work, but what's clear is that Egypt can no longer bank on the water allocation it has received until now and that Ethiopia's dam will grant the country a greater level of political influence.
Mbaku points out that for the first two Nile Waters Agreements, Ethiopia wasn't even consulted. "Now, Egypt is not as domineering as it used to be, and the Ethiopians are in a very strong position to dictate terms," he says.
As water becomes an increasingly scarce and contested resource in many parts of the world, all eyes will be on the test case being played out along the Nile.
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 Which way and what next Ethiopia?
Mark Lemma
I am very much confused and disappointed by the following news: There are various articles written about the PM of Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed quoted saying that “The GERD will at least delayed and maybe even it will not be built to the end” ….” …at least any time soon…^
Al Jazeera is writing: “Will The Largest Dam In Africa Ever Be Completed” and also writes that America is weakening Ethiopi’s military and wants only Ethiopia to be a partner in the fight against terrorism. Fellows I don’t know but if that “terrorism” is not directly affecting Ethiopia’s interest then Ethiopia must call it quit because it is not Ethiopia’s war. Pakistan did that and has developed an excellent relationship with The Peoples Republic of China while Ethiopia is losing a good friend and ally: China. Does any Ethiopian in his/her right mind think and believe that the U.S in particular under Trump want to see Ethiopia becoming an emerging economic and military power in the region and globally ? NO way. The U.S is trying its best to weaken The Peoples Republic of China but that will be an impossible task. Going back to Pakistan though, the country similar to India is acquiring The Russian S-400 and possibly in the near future the S-500 Air defense system which is claimed to be the best in the World and so has Turkey despite Washington’s threats has bought the S-400 Defense system which according to them can shoot down the U.S F-22; F-35 needless to mention F-16 and F-18’s plus can take down the Tomahawk 
CNN now writes under the heading: “Massive dam threatens Egypt’s portion of the Nile” further when you click open the headline it reads: “Is Ethiopia Taking Control of The River Nile?” And if you read the article carefully it is anti-Ethiopian in an implicit way but also explicitly. No mention of Egypt’s vast underground water reserve? This so-called liberal media as well as the plantation newspaper: The Washington Post is as hawkish and war mongers as any other conservative media as long as it serves the U.S interest and generates employment, brings more money to the U.S and stays as a “backbone” for the dollar. The Stone Age dictatorial regime of Saudi Arabia whose airs they all leak left right and middle are doing just that.
Ethiopia seems to be dictated by the joint Trump administration and the house of the Saudis and namely MBS. What an irony when the age old vassal state = Colony of The Axumite Empire Of Ethiopia till the days of the Arabian prophet Muhammed’s grandfather Abdul Motaleb is now assigned by the U.S to broker a peace deal between Ethiopia and Eritrea and signed in Jeddah Saudi Arabia by Abyi Ahmed and Isayas Afewerki.  Arabia today known as Saudi Arabia founded only in 1932 by Ibn Saud is nothing but a hotchpotch territory consisting of: Hijaz, Najdi & part of eastern Arabia, (Al Ahsa), and southern Arabia (Asir). Just because of its Petro dollar is practically doing anything it wants and according to many observers Saudis having a significant influence directly and indirectly also dictating the U.S administration and even coming out clean after committing genocide and individual assassinations as well as financing terrorism in the U.S soil itself and having significant influence starting from the oval office itself.
What now Ethiopia?. Development or Stagnation, corruption, and total degeneration of Ethiopia? Independence or Slavery?  To Be dictated by Ethiopia’s old vassals = colonies of Saudis and Egypt?
And or be the Captain of ship sailing the stormy weather forward to reach the destination of agricultural and industrial development and strengthening the countries defense to the most highest level possible that can deter any and all external enemies ?
  

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