By Berhane Kahsay
Ethiopia
is in the midst of a serious political, economic and social crisis,and if prompt
action is not taken to correct the situation,an all-out civil war can’t be circumvented.
PM Abiy is not up-to the task and should give way to a federalist led transitional
government mandated to rule the country until the conclusion of the forth coming
general election scheduled to take place in May 2020.Chauvinist unitarians shouldn’t
be allowed tobe part of this arrangements as they are also culpable for the
mayhem that is unfolding in the country at this moment in time.The
justification for this is that, the only political groupings that can pacify
and navigate the nation to the next election are federalists whohave the
support and confidenceof over 80% of the populace who immensely benefited from
the mode of governance that came into play in 1992.
The recent
violence in Oromia region triggered by the measures taken against Jawar,were
clear indicators of what would happen if the prevailing conditions are left to
linger for much longer. According to official reports, 67 people have been
killed in various partsof the region and 359 have been placed behind bars.Oromia
Police Chief, Kafyalew Tefera,disclosed to the BBC that three churches as well
as a mosque were razed to the ground pointing a religious dimension to the turbulence
PM Abiy is failing to resolve. Equally disturbing was the open clashes that took
place between Amhara and Oromo youth in Adama, Dire Dawa and Bishftu where the
law enforcement agencies turned a blind eye and allowed the chaos to continue
causing fatalities and damages to private properties and businesses.
If the discords
between the two populous regions persevere,it will gravely endanger the lives of
10 million Amhara living in various sections of Oromia administration.The recent
destruction ofconstruction machineries in Amhara region belonging to an Oromo
contractor would no doubt add fuel to the already blazing fire. A retaliatory
action against Amhara business owners in Oromia is inevitable,and unless prompt
legal measures are taken to punish the perpetrators in both localities, things
could easily escalate beyond the control of the central government.
Destroying
businesses can only hurt the economy which is already in a very bad shape.In a
recent interview with ‘’Andafta’’television, Haile Gebresellassie disclosed
that several investors in Amhara and Oromia have been forced to close their
establishments because of the instability causing the owners to lay-off their
entire staff.If this trend continues, more jobs will be lost,and this in turn
is certain to exacerbate the political crisis which is sweeping across the
country.No doubt, foreign enemies will take advantage of the volatile situationand
ensure the country remains in a quagmire from which it will never be able to
extricate herself.
For
obvious reasons, Egypt is involved in fomenting the crisis and the Arab
Republic seems to be determined to continue with its destructive activities
until its demands are met.It has already forced the stuttering Ethiopian government
to negotiate in the presence of a third party in Washington next month,
according to Egypt’s foreign minister,Sameh Shoukry.This is in addition to the coerced
reduction of GERD’s output from 6,450 MW to 5,150 MW cutting the capacity of the
dam by 1,300 MW. But the ultimate strategy of Egypt is to stop the construction
of GERD all together,and in the long run, ensure discussions on equitable utilisation
of the Nile Waters would never be raised again by plunging Ethiopia in a
perpetual and intractable political crisis.
The
upheaval in the country shows no sign of abating, and apart from Tigrai, all other
regional administrations have been affected by the turbulence precipitating a
complete break-down of law and order. Armed ‘warlords’ are roaming the streets
with complete liberty and business communities are falling into their hands for
protection because of the local governments inabilities to uphold therule of
law.
Tigrai’s
tranquillity cannot be sustained under the prevailing political climate.It is
now long over-due for the TPLF to come out of its shell and team-up with the
other federalist parties around the country and show what they are made of.
EPRDF is effectively dead and the TPLF must come to terms with it and act to
stop the unitarians from taking over the country and plunge it into an
unimaginable bloodshed. Leaving the situation for much longer would also give
an opportunity for Islamist fundamentalists to spread their reach across the
country bearing in mind thatthey have Saudi’s Wahabi movement to financially
back them until they achieve their mission.
Even
if the TPLF and its partners restore the rule of law, it is not in Tigrai’s
longer term interest to remain part of the union. The ruling party in Tigrai
must aim to form an independent state in a decade after having imbedded multi-party
democracy, food self-sufficiency, the rule of law and buoyant economy.By this
time, the Eritrean dictator would be dead and buried paving the way for the two
nation to link up on equal terms. With a strong economy and vibrant pluralism,
sky is the limit!!!!!
AP (አ ፖ ) notes
We disagree with the writer that Tigray should leave the union or secede from Ethiopia. We need to make sure there is no domination of the Amhara or The Oromo. We can buld a multiethnic democratic Ethiopia. If the Amhara or Oromo continue to be a problem, then we should displace them from Ethiopia. Tigray and Ethiopia are one and the same entitiy. As to Eritrea, we should revisit the Eritrean question. The Red Sea belongs to Aksumite Kingdom. Eritrea has no right to occupy the Red Sea and landlock Ethiopia i.e. Tigray. The struggle in Ethiopia for democracy and unity should not be based on political expediency and despotism.
