Urgent need for federalist led transitional administration to save Ethiopia

By Berhane Kahsay 
 

Ethiopia is in the midst of a serious political, economic and social crisis,and if prompt action is not taken to correct the situation,an all-out civil war can’t be circumvented. PM Abiy is not up-to the task and should give way to a federalist led transitional government mandated to rule the country until the conclusion of the forth coming general election scheduled to take place in May 2020.Chauvinist unitarians shouldn’t be allowed tobe part of this arrangements as they are also culpable for the mayhem that is unfolding in the country at this moment in time.The justification for this is that, the only political groupings that can pacify and navigate the nation to the next election are federalists whohave the support and confidenceof over 80% of the populace who immensely benefited from the mode of governance that came into play in 1992.

The recent violence in Oromia region triggered by the measures taken against Jawar,were clear indicators of what would happen if the prevailing conditions are left to linger for much longer. According to official reports, 67 people have been killed in various partsof the region and 359 have been placed behind bars.Oromia Police Chief, Kafyalew Tefera,disclosed to the BBC that three churches as well as a mosque were razed to the ground pointing a religious dimension to the turbulence PM Abiy is failing to resolve. Equally disturbing was the open clashes that took place between Amhara and Oromo youth in Adama, Dire Dawa and Bishftu where the law enforcement agencies turned a blind eye and allowed the chaos to continue causing fatalities and damages to private properties and businesses.

If the discords between the two populous regions persevere,it will gravely endanger the lives of 10 million Amhara living in various sections of Oromia administration.The recent destruction ofconstruction machineries in Amhara region belonging to an Oromo contractor would no doubt add fuel to the already blazing fire. A retaliatory action against Amhara business owners in Oromia is inevitable,and unless prompt legal measures are taken to punish the perpetrators in both localities, things could easily escalate beyond the control of the central government.

Destroying businesses can only hurt the economy which is already in a very bad shape.In a recent interview with ‘’Andafta’’television, Haile Gebresellassie disclosed that several investors in Amhara and Oromia have been forced to close their establishments because of the instability causing the owners to lay-off their entire staff.If this trend continues, more jobs will be lost,and this in turn is certain to exacerbate the political crisis which is sweeping across the country.No doubt, foreign enemies will take advantage of the volatile situationand ensure the country remains in a quagmire from which it will never be able to extricate herself.

For obvious reasons, Egypt is involved in fomenting the crisis and the Arab Republic seems to be determined to continue with its destructive activities until its demands are met.It has already forced the stuttering Ethiopian government to negotiate in the presence of a third party in Washington next month, according to Egypt’s foreign minister,Sameh Shoukry.This is in addition to the coerced reduction of GERD’s output from 6,450 MW to 5,150 MW cutting the capacity of the dam by 1,300 MW. But the ultimate strategy of Egypt is to stop the construction of GERD all together,and in the long run, ensure discussions on equitable utilisation of the Nile Waters would never be raised again by plunging Ethiopia in a perpetual and intractable political crisis.

The upheaval in the country shows no sign of abating, and apart from Tigrai, all other regional administrations have been affected by the turbulence precipitating a complete break-down of law and order. Armed ‘warlords’ are roaming the streets with complete liberty and business communities are falling into their hands for protection because of the local governments inabilities to uphold therule of law.

Tigrai’s tranquillity cannot be sustained under the prevailing political climate.It is now long over-due for the TPLF to come out of its shell and team-up with the other federalist parties around the country and show what they are made of. EPRDF is effectively dead and the TPLF must come to terms with it and act to stop the unitarians from taking over the country and plunge it into an unimaginable bloodshed. Leaving the situation for much longer would also give an opportunity for Islamist fundamentalists to spread their reach across the country bearing in mind thatthey have Saudi’s Wahabi movement to financially back them until they achieve their mission.

Even if the TPLF and its partners restore the rule of law, it is not in Tigrai’s longer term interest to remain part of the union. The ruling party in Tigrai must aim to form an independent state in a decade after having imbedded multi-party democracy, food self-sufficiency, the rule of law and buoyant economy.By this time, the Eritrean dictator would be dead and buried paving the way for the two nation to link up on equal terms. With a strong economy and vibrant pluralism, sky is the limit!!!!!

 AP (አ ፖ ) notes 

We disagree with the writer that Tigray should leave the union or secede from Ethiopia. We need to make sure there is no domination of the Amhara or The Oromo. We can buld a multiethnic democratic Ethiopia. If the Amhara or Oromo continue to be a problem, then we should displace them from Ethiopia. Tigray and Ethiopia are one and the same entitiy. As to Eritrea, we should revisit the Eritrean question. The Red Sea belongs to Aksumite Kingdom. Eritrea has no right to occupy the Red Sea and landlock Ethiopia  i.e. Tigray. The struggle in Ethiopia for democracy and unity should not be based on political expediency and despotism.