Finian CUNNINGHAM
Nearly
five months after a change in power in Ethiopia, the country is
witnessing an outbreak of deadly communal violence in several regions.
The surge in conflict has come after many years of political stability
in the Horn of Africa nation, stirring fears that the country may be
facing widespread chaos and even break-up.
There are also suspicions that the unprecedented instability is part of a US-backed geopolitical realignment,
one which shifts Ethiopia from its strategic economic partnership with
China, towards being a client of American-backed Arab regimes. This
shift is happening without national consensus, driven by a new ruling
faction. It is a fait accompli. Tantamount to a coup.
In
April this year, the Ethiopian parliament voted a new prime minister
into office. The opaque selection process seemed to involve a lot of
horse-trading. A youthful Abiy Ahmed (41) emerged as the new leader. He
has won wide praise in Western media and from the US government in particular for supposedly introducing positive reforms.
For example, he released hundreds of political prisoners, ended a state
of emergency, and condemned past alleged human rights violations by
security forces. The condemnation was less admission; more a ploy to
undermine the previous government with a false label of “state
terrorism”.
Abiy Ahmed, who is commonly referred to simply by his first name, has declared an
internal peace process with a militant group known as the Oromo
Liberation Front (OFL), and he has welcomed back exiled political
figures from the US and other countries reportedly in the name of “forgiveness”.
Internationally,
the new prime minister initiated a rapid rapprochement with neighboring
Eritrea, overcoming nearly 20 years of bitter dispute following a
three-year border war (1998-2001). The two countries formally declared
peace last month.
These
apparent progressive changes, however, are more plausibly a misreading
of a disturbing reorientation of Ethiopia’s politics. While the Western
media are portraying premier Abiy as a pro-democracy liberal, there is a
darker side to what is going on.
Last week, Abiy welcomed senior officials from the Saudi and Emirati Gulf states. Saudi foreign minister Adel al-Jubeir visited on
the same day that he made an earlier stopover in Eritrea where he was
warmly received by Eritrean dictator Isaias Afwerki. The Gulf Arab
regimes are long-time sponsors of Eritrea. Ethiopia’s sudden affiliation
with the Arab despots has left many Ethiopians worried that their
country is covertly being shunted in a more sinister direction.
What
appears to be underway is a geopolitical shift in which Ethiopia is
gravitating to the orbit of the United States and its Middle East
clients, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia. That has implications for
Ethiopia’s erstwhile strategic economic partnership with China, as well
as dangerously stoking the country’s internal tensions.
The
recent flare-up of conflict and tensions in Ethiopia are complex,
reflecting the fact that the nation of 100 million is comprised of 84
ethnic peoples. The mainly Christian Orthodox country has also a large
Muslim population. There are thus several flash-points, which could
explode into widespread violence.
Recently, the country’s eastern region bordering Somalia saw dozens of churches attacked and several priests reportedly killed.
The danger is that reprisals could lead to a sectarian conflagration.
People are nervously anticipating more violence as the country seems to
be teetering on a sharp edge.
There
have also been other deadly clashes in southern, central and western
regions. Notably, the sparse Western media coverage tends to depict the
violence as occurring in spite of “reformist” Abiy Ahmed. Whereas, more
accurately, the surge in violence appears to be the responsibility of
the new ruling faction around the prime minister.
Who
carried out the killings in the eastern Somali region is not clear. The
authorities in the capital, Addis Ababa, under premier Abiy’s control, claim that
local paramilitary police carried out attacks on Oromo people. The
Western media have tended to promote that claim. But there is suspicion
that the killings may have been instigated by the central authorities
for a sinister objective of inciting sectarian conflict and asserting
central control over that region.
What
raises suspicion is that such violence against Christians in that
location is unprecedented. The governor of the Somali region, Abdi
Illey, is believed to be now in custody of the Addis Ababa central
government. But Abdi Illey, while being a Muslim himself, has a long
history of benign relations with Christians in his region, having built
many churches over the years. More significantly, perhaps, he is also a
staunch supporter of the former ruling coalition government, which the
new prime minister has shown increasing antipathy towards since he took
office in April.
The
former central authorities in Addis Ababa were dominated by the Tigray
People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The TPLF hail from the northern region
bordering Eritrea. They were the main revolutionary force that
overthrew the despotic Derg regime in 1990-91. What the new leadership
in Addis Ababa seems to be doing is rehabilitating remnants of the Derg.
When premier Abiy was in the US earlier this month on a week-long tour,
he pointedly shared public stages with exiled figures who had been part
of the Derg. When he talks about these exiles returning home, this is
not viewed as a “progressive reform” by many Ethiopians, as the Western
media would portray, but rather as a retrograde move that could reignite
past conflict.
Ethiopians,
especially in the northern Tigray region, fear that Abiy is stealthily
pushing a sectarian agenda which will prioritize the dominance of his
ethnic group, the Oromo. There is also concern that Abiy, who has Muslim
heritage, is aligning with Arab states which could inflame sectarian
violence with Christians. A key indicator to watch is if the Saudis and
Emiratis start funneling money into the country to build radicalizing
mosques.
According
to Ethiopian political sources, it is suspected that Abiy’s rise to
power is part of a long-term plan orchestrated by Washington and its
Arab allies to fundamentally reorient the Horn of Africa region away
from China’s economic influence. Over the past two decades, China has
partnered with Ethiopia as a model for African development. The
partnership was very much encouraged by the TPLF-dominated government.
That alignment seems now to be eroding under prime minister Abiy. He
has, for example, made provocative public comments deriding the TPLF and
some of the country’s flagship development projects, which China had
played a key role in.
It is also significant that Emirati officials were in Eritrea earlier this month where they announced plans for building a major oil pipeline from Ethiopia to the Red Sea via the Eritrean port of Assab. Ethiopia recently discovered significant oil reserves in its eastern region.
That move possibly signals why the Saudis and Emiratis, as well as Washington, were the political driving forces behind
the “surprise” peace deal between Ethiopia’s Abiy and Eritrea’s
Afwerki. A deal that Abiy initiated only weeks after taking office.
In
order to cleave Ethiopia from China’s strategic partnership, it was
necessary to bring in an Oromo political figure as leader because the
Oromo have historically been opposed to the TPLF-led government, which
had opted to partner with Chinese development capital. The Oromo
Liberation Front, for example, sided with Eritrea during the war with
Ethiopia. That was one of the reasons why OLF figures were exiled or
imprisoned by the Ethiopian government. The militant group was
previously designated a “terrorist” organization by the TPLF-led
administration. The OLF continues to have a base in Asmara, the Eritrean
capital. This is the group that Abiy is welcoming back into Ethiopia’s
political mainstream with brotherly embrace in an act of what he calls
“forgiveness”.
Thus
by shifting Ethiopia away from China into the sphere of the US and Arab
influence – with lucrative gains for American capital of course – the
Oromo prime minister is nevertheless unleashing combustible tensions
within Ethiopia along ethnic and religious lines.
There
are fears that a Christian-Muslim conflict could erupt, or that the
Oromo and Tigray ethnic groups are driven towards civil war. Some of the
Oromo supporters of Abiy Ahmed, whom he brought back from exile, have
been making incendiary public statements calling for vengeance against
the Tigray. There is also a sinister jihadist hue among these
firebrands, consistent with the sponsorship of Saudi and Emirati Wahhabi
rulers.
Ethiopia
is on a knife-edge which could descend into widespread violence. But
one thing is sure, the Western media’s spinning of a “reformist” new
leader, Abiy Ahmed, is way off the mark. The prime minister seems more
like a Trojan Horse figure whose entrance to office is primarily serving
the geopolitical interests of Washington and its Arab client regimes,
while jeopardizing his own country’s stability.
Far
from this political development being “pro-democracy” and
“progressive”, as Western media are mis-reporting, it is more akin to a
foreign-backed coup against Ethiopia’s international independence.
( Source: Strategic Culture Foundation)
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