Finian CUNNINGHAM
The
apparent assassination of a highly regarded public figure has rocked
Ethiopia to its core. Simegnew Bekele, the architect overseeing a
prestigious hydroelectric project in Ethiopia, was shot dead last week
in the capital Addis Ababa by an unknown attacker. Many people in the
Horn of Africa country are now suspecting a foreign hand behind his
brutal slaying.
Bekele
(53) was a much-loved public figure. He was seen as embodying a vision
for Ethiopia’s political independence and economic development. The
hydroelectric dam he oversaw was his life’s work and he was revered by
the wider population for his dedication.
Now what appears to be his cold-blooded murder has shocked the nation.
The killing comes
amid concern that a newly appointed prime minister is part of a
geopolitical shakeup of Ethiopia to bring the country under the
geopolitical sway of Washington and its Arab regional clients, away from
Ethiopia’s recent strategic alignment with China.
In
African security matters, Ethiopia may have been an ally of the United
States for the past three decades. But in terms of its more important
economic development, the country has relied on China.
China’s
growing stature in Africa – much to the chagrin of the US – has been
largely prefigured by its close strategic partnership with Ethiopia.
Ethiopia
is long seen as the spiritual and diplomatic leader of the 54 nations
of the continent, proudly standing as being the one nation never
historically colonized by European powers. Through its economic
partnership with Beijing, Ethiopia was in many ways China’s gateway to
the rest of Africa.
Political Shift
The
coming into office of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali – by parliamentary
selection – nearly four months ago has signaled a shift in the internal
and international politics of Ethiopia. That change appears to be giving
the US a greater role in the economic development of the country in a
way that relegates China’s erstwhile dominant role.
The
murder of chief engineer Bekele last Thursday casts a foreboding shadow
over the future of Ethiopia. It also casts a shadow over the new prime
minister and his much-vaunted leadership.
Youthful premier Abiy Ahmed (41) has up to now won glowing praise in
Western news media as a “reformer”. He has promised to open up key
sectors of the economy to foreign capital and to broaden its multiparty
democracy.
Since
Ethiopia’s revolutionary war against the Derg dictatorship nearly 30
years ago, the country has been ruled by a coalition government largely
dominated by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The Tigray are
a minority ethnic group from the north of Ethiopia which led the
revolutionary war against the despotic Derg regime.
Premier
Ahmed was previously part of the ruling coalition government, having
served as a minister, and in military intelligence. But he comes from
the Oromo ethnic group, which is the most populous in Ethiopia’s nation
of 100 million, comprising some 84 different ethnic groups. The Oromo
are associated with supporting the former Derg regime.
For
the past three decades there have been ongoing acrimonious tensions
between the Oromo and Tigray people. Since Ahmed came to office, there
are fears among the Tigray especially that he is stealthily
rehabilitating remnants of the old regime. He has released hundreds of
political prisoners in the name of “reforms”, but several of these
figures are accused by the Tigray of having committed past acts of grave
violence against the state.
Courted by Washington
Internationally, premier Abiy Ahmed has been courted by
Washington. Upon gaining office, the US has gone out of its way to
patronize the new leader, saying that the shift in Ethiopia’s politics
heralds a closer partnership between the two countries.
What
the US is seeking to do is oust China from its role as the pivotal
foreign partner in Ethiopia’s development. Ethiopia has been the African
model of Chinese-assisted development for the entire continent.
In
recent years, it is China and its massive financial and technological
investment that is the main driver for the continent’s prodigious
potential, overtaking the Americans and Europeans as foreign players.
Ethiopia, situated on the eastern Horn of Africa, has been a vital link
to China’s ambitions for integrating Africa into its global plans for
reviving the ancient Silk Roads from Asia.
Since
taking office, Abiy Ahmed has made some rather discordant public
announcements. He has reportedly criticized flagship infrastructure
projects overseen by China, such as the mammoth railway system linking
the capital Addis Ababa to the neighboring coastal state of Djibouti.
Ethiopia
has been landlocked since its 1998-2001 border war with Eritrea to its
north. The recent opening of a rail line to Djibouti to the northeast of
Ethiopia was seen as a breakthrough strategic link for access to the
Red Sea and international trade. It was a vital corridor too for China’s
access to East Africa.
Premier
Ahmed has also taken a strangely dim view of Ethiopia’s Grand
Renaissance Dam project which aims to harness the water of the Blue Nile
for hydroelectric power. Under construction for the past seven years,
the dam was slated to begin production by the end of this decade.
The
project was the innovation of the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi who
was the leader of the revolutionary war against the Derg regime. Zenawi
died in 2012 at the age of 57 from a rare brain illness. He was replaced
by Haile Mariam Desalgn who resigned earlier this year, in March, over
Oromo civil strife, paving the way for Abiy Ahmed.
Dam Delayed, Engineer Killed
The
new prime minister made an unexpected announcement last month that the
dam’s construction could be delayed by 10 years. That announcement
caused much public consternation.
Shortly
before his killing last week, the chief engineer Simegnew Bekele, who
was appointed in 2011 to lead the project, also hinted in media
interviews that his work was being undermined by certain government
figures.
Prior to that, in early June, premier Ahmed’s first overseas official visit was to Egypt where he was warmly greeted in Cairo by President al-Sisi.
Egypt
has long protested the construction of Ethiopia’s dam out of
apprehension that it would drastically reduce the flow of water to the
Nile Valley, essential for Egyptian agriculture.
During
his visit to Cairo, both leaders talked about a new beginning in
friendly relations. It is believed that Ethiopia’s Ahmed privately gave
al-Sisi concessions on the future of the Blue Nile dam. Subsequent talk
about an unprecedented delay in the construction seems to be part of the
concession.
Surprise Peace Initiative
The
next major international development came last month, mid-July, when
premier Ahmed finalized a sudden peace initiative with Eritrea. The two
countries were gripped by a border war nearly two decades years ago.
That conflict followed the overthrow of the Derg regime which resulted
in the secession of Eritrea from Ethiopia. Ethiopia became landlocked,
cut off from the Red Sea.
The feting of
Eritrean leader Isaias Afwerki in Addis Ababa was hailed by
international media as another sweeping “progressive reform” under
premier Ahmed.
But
many people in Ethiopia are not so approving, especially among the
northern Tigray population who lost up to 150,000 people during the
bitter three-year civil war with Eritrea. The Oromo prime minister is
proposing to hand over disputed border lands to Eritrea as part of the
peace settlement. That is being viewed as a betrayal by the Tigray.
Geopolitically,
it is also suspected that the peace initiative with Eritrea is being
driven by a US-led plan to carve out a new trading route for Ethiopia
through Eritrea to the Red Sea. In that way, the importance of
neighboring Djibouti and the Chinese-led trade route to East Africa
would be sidelined.
US Move To Sideline China
The
surprise peace opening between Ethiopia and Eritrea followed the visit
to East Africa by former US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in March.
During his trip, Tillerson made some provocative statements demeaning China as a partner to Africa. That was only three weeks before Abiy Ahmed’s accession to power on April 2.
There
then followed, according to Ethiopian sources, low-key visits by US
State Department officials to Addis Ababa and the Eritrean capital,
Asmara. The US contact with Asmara was particularly remarkable because
for years Washington has been sanctioning and isolating Eritrea over
alleged human rights abuses under its longtime leader Afwerki.
Eritrea’s
tiny economy has largely subsisted in recent years under the patronage
of the Gulf Arab states. As well as Washington’s bidding, Saudi Arabia
and the United Arab Emirates have also played a behind-the-scenes role
in facilitating the rapprochement between Eritrea and Ethiopia. A week
after the peace deal was sealed in mid-July, the two leaders were
afforded a congratulations ceremony in the UAE during which they were presented with ornate gold medallions by the Emirati Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed.
Two
days later, on July 26, Ethiopians were shocked to hear that the chief
engineer of the Grand Renaissance Dam was found dead in his car in the
main public square of Addis Ababa. Simegnew Bekele had been shot behind
his right ear at close range. A handgun was found in the car, with its
engine still running. Few believe it was suicide.
Bekele
was the public face of the dam project, which many Ethiopians were
hoping would promote the development of their country. The engineer was
highly regarded by the public for his dedication to the flagship
project. He was widely seen as being free from corruption.
His
death has raised concerns that the hydroelectric dam will be disrupted
with long delay, or that the financing of it will be radically
overhauled.
Political Assassination
There
seems little doubt that the killing of the master-engineer was a
political assassination. In the days before his fatal encounter, CCTV
cameras were inexplicably disabled in the area. His personal security
detail was also relieved from duty to accompany him.
On
the morning of the shooting, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed flew to the US.
In an unseemly response, Ahmed ignored a public outcry for him to return
to the country on the appalling news of the engineer’s death. His
absence from the high-profile funeral on July 29, which was mourned by
the nation, was seen as unbecoming.
Moreover,
Ahmed’s perceived lack of civic duty has sparked widespread public
anger especially among the Tigray people. For the past week, the country
has witnessed mass demonstrations, with many people suspecting the new
ruling faction around Ahmed of having sanctioned the murder of engineer
Bekele.
During
his US tour, the prime minister has been hosted by the large Ethiopian
diaspora. Some of the rallies, including one on the day of Bekele’s
funeral in Addis Ababa last Sunday, have featured prominent members
associated with the outcast Derg regime sharing the stage with Ahmed.
People
in Ethiopia have been aggrieved by what they see as insensitive
behavior by the prime minister in not immediately returning to the
country to share in the nation’s sorrow over the renowned engineer’s
death.
Greeted by Pence & IMF’s Lagarde
While in the US over the past week, premier Ahmed also had a meeting with Vice President Mike Pence, during which Pence talked effusively about future economic ties with Ethiopia.
Another engagement was
with Christine Lagarde, the head of the Washington-based International
Monetary Fund (IMF). Up to now, the IMF and Western finance capital have
been kept at bay in Ethiopia’s development. Projects like the Grand
Renaissance Dam have been either self-financed or have relied on China
for investment. Lagarde, like Pence, hailed a new future of tighter
partnership with Ethiopia.
With
the killing of engineer Bekele, the $4 billion dam project in the
northwestern region of Ethiopia near the border with Sudan has been
thrown into disarray. The unprecedented delay in construction that
premier Ahmed controversially announced last month now seems a
certainty. If and when it goes ahead, the financing arrangement may
require the IMF to step in. The involvement of Western capital is what
the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi strenuously sought to avoid. His
vision of independent financing was shared by the deceased engineer.
To
sum up, Ethiopia appears to be undergoing a deep geopolitical
realignment. However, the realignment seems to be going ahead without
national consensus, albeit praised on the surface by Western media as
“reforms” under the new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The United States is
assuming a greater role in the country’s economic future in place of
China.
As
a strategically important African nation – the African Union’s
headquarters are in Addis Ababa, built in 2012 by China with a $200
million grant – an increased influence of Washington in Ethiopia will
have repercussions across the continent.
The
apparent US-led rapprochement between Ethiopia and Eritrea is key to
the intended ouster of China’s foothold on the continent via the
Djibouti port, where China last year opened up its first overseas
military base.
This
shifting geopolitical rearrangement also gives the US and the Gulf Arab
states greater dominion over the Red Sea chokepoint in global trade,
especially for seaborne oil. That may account for the US-backed Saudi
war to control Yemen, which sits opposite to Eritrea astride the Red Sea
on the Arabian Peninsula.
New Geopolitical Configuration
In
this new geopolitical configuration, Ethiopia under Abiy Ahmed Ali
appears to be moving away from its strategic partnership with China to
align with the US and its Arab regional allies, Egypt and the Gulf oil
sheikhdoms. Abiy’s Muslim heritage is thought to make him amenable to
embrace America’s Arab client regimes.
The apparent assassination of engineer Simegnew Bekele is given significance by this strategic power play.
But
this US-led orchestration against China, or as Washington would say
“great power competition”, is unleashing dangerous political tensions
within Ethiopia.
The
federal Ethiopian state formed after the revolutionary war against the
former Derg regime is severely straining because of premier Ahmed’s
perceived favor of sectarian interests under the guise of “reforms”. His
premiership appears to be more weighted by Oromo political figures.
Given the large Christian-Muslim composition of Ethiopia, there are also
fears that the country could be incited into religious conflict.
There
is simmering anger that the hallowed public figure of engineer Simegnew
Bekele may have been a sacrificial victim in order to assist the US
geopolitical power play.
Across
Ethiopia there is growing trepidation about the future direction of the
country. The dark days of political murder and sectarian persecution,
which previously abated after the overthrow of the Derg regime, are
haunting Ethiopia once again.
Poignantly,
the murder of Simegnew Bekele, whose Christian name means “hope” in his
native language, has grievously struck the country’s sense of
nationhood and its once bright aspirations for independent development.
( Source: Strategic Culture Foundation)
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