By Tyler Cowen
As 2018 comes to a close, attention is turning to what is likely to happen in 2019. I have no idea. But if you follow these questions, you will have your finger on the pulse of the world to come:
What will happen with Chinese civil society?
Five to 10 years ago, China had a proliferating and diverse group of non-profit groups, think tanks and cooperative civil society institutions, such as charities and clubs. They never stood on a firm legal foundation, but in the last few years they have been subject to a severe crackdown, including shutdowns, discouragements from the state, and much greater surveillance. Yet this social space cannot remain empty. Either the earlier growth will resume, boosting prospects for Chinese liberalization, or Chinese society will fall back under much more state control. This is my No. 1 issue for the year to come, and so far I am pessimistic.
Will China succeed in extending its political influence to the West with One Belt, One Road?
China
is attempting what is the world’s most ambitious plan, namely to
transform the economic and political order on its western flank, ranging
as far as Africa. But China to date has not done a great job
cultivating true allies (Pakistan? North Korea? Cambodia?), and already a
backlash
is settling in against Chinese influence. Will China succeed in helping
to develop this part of the world and also bringing it into the Chinese
sphere of influence? I say yes and no, respectively.
Will Ethiopia serve as a viable model for African
development?
The country has been growing at about 10 percent for a decade, and it is spending more on infrastructure and receiving more foreign investment in its manufacturing capacity. Ethiopia now also has a charismatic prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, and under his leadership the country has deregulated its internet (formerly banned outside the capital), made peace with Eritrea, instituted market-oriented reforms, and moved to sell off parts of its government-owned companies. A lot of pieces are moving in the right direction, and
maybe Ethiopia has a chance
to move up to middle-income status over time, perhaps paving the way for other sub-Saharan economies.
I’ve visited twice in the last year, and I’m optimistic on this one, but the end of the story isn’t written yet. A wild card is that liberalization could cause further ethnic tensions to flare up throughout the country. With more than 100 million people, Ethiopia is Africa’s second most populous country, so a lot is at stake, including geopolitical stability in the Horn of Africa.
You may have noticed already that these lead issues do not much involve the U.S. or Europe. Next up is more from
Africa:
Nigeria has incredible energy and talent, but it still has poor governance and rampant corruption. Can that combination drive significant economic growth?
The country has recovered from recession of last year, but still hasn’t consistently stayed above 2 percent growth since then. So file this one under “remains to be seen.” Nigeria, of course, has both the largest population and economy in Africa.
How will India’s intellectual space evolve?
Many Western outsiders used to root for a particular Indian brand of Anglo liberalism to assume increasing importance in the political and intellectual life of India. While this has always been a minority viewpoint, it has had prominent representatives, including Ramachandra Guha, who just published a major biography of Gandhi. But these days, this perspective is dwindling in influence, as is old-style Bengali Marxism and other ideas from the left. It’s not just Hindu nationalism on the rise, rather India seems to be evolving intellectually in a multiplicity of directions, few of them familiar to most Americans. In India, history ain’t over, and further ideological fragmentation seems to be the safest prediction. Note that ideas are very often a leading indicator for where a nation ends up.
Since India may become the world’s most populous country and biggest economy by mid-century, this one is a dark horse candidate for the most important issue of the year.
How about some issues overrated in terms of immediate import? I don’t think Crispr is ready to pose major moral dilemmas just yet, driverless trucks are likely to arrive before driverless cars, and America’s political checks and balances seem to be holding up.
And if you want some outright predictions for closer to (my) home, here are a few: Some version of Theresa May’s Brexit plan will pass. President Donald Trump will remain in office though tarnished all the more. The Golden State Warriors will win another NBA championship. And finally: Stock prices will go up, and down, and then maybe up again. Just don’t say you heard it here.
(Source: Bloomberg)
AP(አ ፖ) notes : We have slightly changed the article. USA and Europe excluding Russia are not any more the economic powers they used to be. The current political chaos in Ethiopia has nothing to do with the lack of democracy or corruption. The aim is to stop Ethiopia from electrifying and industrialising it's economy. We believe TPLF-EPRDF is a patriotic and nationalist group that could propel Ethiopia to it's right place in the community of advanced nations as did China's Communist Party to China. We believe Abiy Ahmed and Lemma Mergessa are Trojan horses of Egypt and it's running dog Eritrea. We hope USA realises it has made a grave mistake by supporting Abiy Ahmed and his team. Abiy Ahmed enabled the assassination of Engineer Semegnew Beqele, CEO of The Abay (Nile) Dam or The Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Abiy slowed down the construction of The Nile Dam. Abiy Ahmed and co. started dismantling MeTEC, Ethiopia's Military Industrial Complex. Further Abiy Ahmed and co are pitting Ethiopian ethnic and religious groups against each other. Abiy Ahmed has unconditionally accepted the Algier's Agreement, which is not in the advantage of Ethiopia. Eritrea is abusing the so-called Peace Deal. Ethiopia should review the so-called Peace Deal, which is no deal. Further Ethiopia should not accept anti-Ethiopia investors . The local investors and investors from selected countries including USA, Russia, Europe, China, India are enough to jump start the economy.Investors from Egypt, Arabia, Morocco etc should not be allowed to invest as they have hidden agenda of destabilising Ethiopia. On the other hand Abiy Ahmed has united the people of Ethiopia behind him. People of Ethiopia feel more secured in general than during the times of TPLF-EPRDF. Ethiopia was more like a police state under TPLF-EPRDF, where selected memebers of the party control the rest of the society. TPLF-EPRDF used the 1:5 network to spy on the opposition. Family members and the clergy were used to spy on citizens who opposed TPLF-EPRDF. This seems to have disppeared under the leaderhip of Abiy Ahmed. TPLF-EPRDF landlocked Ethiopia by giving away The South Mereb Region to "Eritrea", which has left a scar in the history of TPLF-EPRDF and made TPLF-EPRDF an ascaris or banda, which backstabbed Ethiopia and her people.
____________________________________________________
As 2018 comes to a close, attention is turning to what is likely to happen in 2019. I have no idea. But if you follow these questions, you will have your finger on the pulse of the world to come:
What will happen with Chinese civil society?
Five to 10 years ago, China had a proliferating and diverse group of non-profit groups, think tanks and cooperative civil society institutions, such as charities and clubs. They never stood on a firm legal foundation, but in the last few years they have been subject to a severe crackdown, including shutdowns, discouragements from the state, and much greater surveillance. Yet this social space cannot remain empty. Either the earlier growth will resume, boosting prospects for Chinese liberalization, or Chinese society will fall back under much more state control. This is my No. 1 issue for the year to come, and so far I am pessimistic.
Will China succeed in extending its political influence to the West with One Belt, One Road?
Will Ethiopia serve as a viable model for African
development?
The country has been growing at about 10 percent for a decade, and it is spending more on infrastructure and receiving more foreign investment in its manufacturing capacity. Ethiopia now also has a charismatic prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, and under his leadership the country has deregulated its internet (formerly banned outside the capital), made peace with Eritrea, instituted market-oriented reforms, and moved to sell off parts of its government-owned companies. A lot of pieces are moving in the right direction, and
maybe Ethiopia has a chance
to move up to middle-income status over time, perhaps paving the way for other sub-Saharan economies.
I’ve visited twice in the last year, and I’m optimistic on this one, but the end of the story isn’t written yet. A wild card is that liberalization could cause further ethnic tensions to flare up throughout the country. With more than 100 million people, Ethiopia is Africa’s second most populous country, so a lot is at stake, including geopolitical stability in the Horn of Africa.
You may have noticed already that these lead issues do not much involve the U.S. or Europe. Next up is more from
Africa:
Nigeria has incredible energy and talent, but it still has poor governance and rampant corruption. Can that combination drive significant economic growth?
The country has recovered from recession of last year, but still hasn’t consistently stayed above 2 percent growth since then. So file this one under “remains to be seen.” Nigeria, of course, has both the largest population and economy in Africa.
How will India’s intellectual space evolve?
Many Western outsiders used to root for a particular Indian brand of Anglo liberalism to assume increasing importance in the political and intellectual life of India. While this has always been a minority viewpoint, it has had prominent representatives, including Ramachandra Guha, who just published a major biography of Gandhi. But these days, this perspective is dwindling in influence, as is old-style Bengali Marxism and other ideas from the left. It’s not just Hindu nationalism on the rise, rather India seems to be evolving intellectually in a multiplicity of directions, few of them familiar to most Americans. In India, history ain’t over, and further ideological fragmentation seems to be the safest prediction. Note that ideas are very often a leading indicator for where a nation ends up.
Since India may become the world’s most populous country and biggest economy by mid-century, this one is a dark horse candidate for the most important issue of the year.
How about some issues overrated in terms of immediate import? I don’t think Crispr is ready to pose major moral dilemmas just yet, driverless trucks are likely to arrive before driverless cars, and America’s political checks and balances seem to be holding up.
And if you want some outright predictions for closer to (my) home, here are a few: Some version of Theresa May’s Brexit plan will pass. President Donald Trump will remain in office though tarnished all the more. The Golden State Warriors will win another NBA championship. And finally: Stock prices will go up, and down, and then maybe up again. Just don’t say you heard it here.
(Source: Bloomberg)
AP(አ ፖ) notes : We have slightly changed the article. USA and Europe excluding Russia are not any more the economic powers they used to be. The current political chaos in Ethiopia has nothing to do with the lack of democracy or corruption. The aim is to stop Ethiopia from electrifying and industrialising it's economy. We believe TPLF-EPRDF is a patriotic and nationalist group that could propel Ethiopia to it's right place in the community of advanced nations as did China's Communist Party to China. We believe Abiy Ahmed and Lemma Mergessa are Trojan horses of Egypt and it's running dog Eritrea. We hope USA realises it has made a grave mistake by supporting Abiy Ahmed and his team. Abiy Ahmed enabled the assassination of Engineer Semegnew Beqele, CEO of The Abay (Nile) Dam or The Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Abiy slowed down the construction of The Nile Dam. Abiy Ahmed and co. started dismantling MeTEC, Ethiopia's Military Industrial Complex. Further Abiy Ahmed and co are pitting Ethiopian ethnic and religious groups against each other. Abiy Ahmed has unconditionally accepted the Algier's Agreement, which is not in the advantage of Ethiopia. Eritrea is abusing the so-called Peace Deal. Ethiopia should review the so-called Peace Deal, which is no deal. Further Ethiopia should not accept anti-Ethiopia investors . The local investors and investors from selected countries including USA, Russia, Europe, China, India are enough to jump start the economy.Investors from Egypt, Arabia, Morocco etc should not be allowed to invest as they have hidden agenda of destabilising Ethiopia. On the other hand Abiy Ahmed has united the people of Ethiopia behind him. People of Ethiopia feel more secured in general than during the times of TPLF-EPRDF. Ethiopia was more like a police state under TPLF-EPRDF, where selected memebers of the party control the rest of the society. TPLF-EPRDF used the 1:5 network to spy on the opposition. Family members and the clergy were used to spy on citizens who opposed TPLF-EPRDF. This seems to have disppeared under the leaderhip of Abiy Ahmed. TPLF-EPRDF landlocked Ethiopia by giving away The South Mereb Region to "Eritrea", which has left a scar in the history of TPLF-EPRDF and made TPLF-EPRDF an ascaris or banda, which backstabbed Ethiopia and her people.
____________________________________________________
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